The NFL Draft is right around the corner, and every year it is filled with surprises. I’ll write more in-depth articles about the draft in the next few days, but I wanted to kick off the draft talk by giving some of my boldest predictions.
The Patriots don’t select a receiver in the first round:
After last year’s receiving woes, it would appear that the Patriots are a sure-thing to take a receiver in the first round. There are some quality receivers on the board, and with Jarrett Stidham likely to start the majority of the season (unless they draft a quarterback), it would make sense that the Patriots want to get him some help. The reason why I don’t think the Patriots are going to pick a receiver is that the move simply would not make sense coming from Bill Belichick. It’s no secret that Bill Belichick likes to find receivers at a discount, and after spending his only first-round pick ever on a receiver last year on N’Keal Harry, who already looks like a potential bust, and trading a second-round pick for Mohammed Sanu who struggled immensely in the Patriots offense, I simply don’t see Belichick using another first-round pick on a receiver. I like Justin Jefferson as a Patriots-type receiver, but I don’t think he is a first-round talent (despite a lot of mock-drafts having the Patriots select him at 23), and after the Pats lost Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Danny Shelton, I think they select some sort of pass-rusher here. There’s also the chance they pick Jordan Love, but either way, I don’t think the Patriots go for a receiver with the 23rd pick.
Boldness meter: 2/10
Jerry Jeudy is the third receiver picked:
Jerry Jeudy is the best receiver in this class in my opinion, but a lot of people seem to be in love with Ceedee Lamb so I think he goes first. Receivers always tend to slide around the board on draft day, and Henry Ruggs feels like a receiver that a team will reach for due to his speed and big-play potential. Jeudy might be a little less flashy than the two, but he’s by far the best route-runner in the class (in addition to still being very physically gifted) but I could easily see teams making the mistake of passing on him and reaching for Ruggs due to “scheme-fit”.
Boldness meter: 3/10
The Saints select Jordan Love with the 24th pick:
I don’t buy the reports that the Saints are even thinking about Taysom Hill as their quarterback of the future. He’s a very good gadget player, but he has a career 46.6 completion percentage with a 46.6 passer rating in the NFL and threw 12 touchdowns to 11 interceptions his senior year at BYU. The idea that he is an NFL-caliber quarterback starter or not is a joke. There’s the chance that the Patriots pick Jordan Love with the pick before the Saints and while the Saints have made no indication that they want to pick a quarterback, and most mock drafts predict the Saints to pick a pass-rusher if Love is available, this pick makes sense with Drew Brees’s future beyond this year in question.
Boldness meter: 4/10
No running backs are selected in the first round:
It would seem that after Jonathan Taylor shocked scouting circles running a sub 4.4 40 yard dash that he became a lock for a first-round pick, but in a draft that has significant depth at the Quarterback, receiver, cornerback and offensive line position, teams could be hesitant to pick a running back in the first round of a class that has not established a front runner. Running backs are hard to predict in a draft—sometimes teams reach for them and other times they fall—but in a league that’s begun to take on the “running-backs don’t matter” image, and after watching a lukewarm market play out for Melvin Gordon, I think this is a definite possibility.
Boldness meter: 4/10
The Buccaneers trade down, swapping the 14th pick and a 5th round pick for a late first and a second-round pick:
I can’t expect this exact trade to happen, but while I do think there is a definite possibility the Buccaneers do trade down from the 14th pick for some sort of draft-pick swap deal. I know the common theme has been making Brady’s new offense the priority in this offseason, and picking whichever one of the offensive linemen falls (likely Wirfs, Thomas, Becton or Jones), however with such a deep OL class, I think the Bucs are willing to wait. Beyond their need for an Offensive Tackle—as they already have a strong interior line—they are in desperate need for pieces to improve the secondary, and in an especially strong cornerback class, I think there’s a good chance that they move some pieces hoping to seriously address the cornerback position. I think there’s still a high probability they take an offensive tackle in the first round after trading down, but I think the goal for the Bucs will be to move up to have as many picks as possible in the first three rounds to shore up the secondary.
Boldness meter: 5.5/10
The Patriots trade a 3rd and 5th round pick to trade into the second round and pick Jacob Eason:
There is growing speculation that the Patriots are going to select a quarterback in this draft, and while most think it is going to be Jordan Love, I think the Pats will trade up to the second round to snag Jacob Eason after all the other four quarterbacks in the top five are off the board. Eason is my third-ranked quarterback in the draft, but he has been largely overlooked in favor of Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. All three of them are project players who absolutely should not start immediately, but Jacob Eason is my favorite of them all, and the Pats will be looking to capitalize on his value trading up to pick him in the second round after watching him slide down the board. I know what you’re thinking: aren’t you the guy who wrote a whole article about how Stidham is the quarterback of the future? Well sure, but Eason has some similarities to Jarrett Stidham, but I think Eason has a much stronger arm. I’m going to post a full quarterback evaluation where I go in-depth into Eason’s skillset, but he reminds me a lot of Jared Goff: strong arm, great mechanics, solid accuracy but has issues with consistency and with going through full-field progressions. He doesn’t get caught on his first-read as much as Herbert and Love, but he certainly has processing issues that cause him to make some questionable throws. I wouldn’t put it past Bill Belichick to pick another project quarterback and have both Stidham and Eason battle it out for a year behind Brian Hoyer before Belichick ultimately chooses one of them as a starter. I believe that Eason likely would be a first-rounder in a lot of other drafts, and Belichick knows that if he wants to select another quarterback, this is the year, as teams are likely going to reach for Herbert and Love.
Boldness meter: 6/10
The Dolphins reach for safety Grant Delpit in the first round with the 18th pick:
Grant Delpit continues to slide down mock draft boards due to concerns about tackling, but after the controversial move to trade defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins need another chess piece type defender in the secondary. While Minkah was more of a free safety that could line up as a corner, Delpit projects as a strong safety who can cover tight ends but can also move around the field and line up as a free safety. Issues with tackling consistency might limit him from lining up in the box, but as his tackling form improves his frame will allow him the ability to take snaps as a linebacker as well. Additionally, I think he fits the scheme better than trying to find an exact Minkah-style replacement, as the addition of cornerback Byron Jones to play opposite cornerback Xavien Howard means that the dolphins are less needy for a free-safety, and more in need of a dirty-work strong safety type defensive back. It would definitely be a reach to pick him this high, but Flores will likely fear the Patriots picking him to replace aging Patrick Chung who will be 34 at the end of his contract, and coming from under Bill Belichick’s system I think we can expect two things out of Flores: he won’t be afraid to select a player “too-high”, and he will value versatility over talent any day.
Boldness meter: 8.75/10
The Browns pass up an opportunity to pick an offensive lineman and pick CeeDee Lamb instead:
It seems like offensive tackle Andrew Thomas out of Georgia (or at least whatever lineman falls) is a no-brainer pick. Baker Mayfield was horrific under pressure last year, and being under constant duress did not help his cause. This is the Browns we’re talking about though. This is the team that has continued to ignore team needs, instead opting to sign skill position players such as Austin Hooper and Kareem Hunt despite having significant holes at other positions. This move makes absolutely no sense from a personnel standpoint, but common sense does not apply in Cleveland, and with rumors flying around that they might try to trade wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr, they could be looking to draft a replacement before they trade him. This move would also reunite Mayfield with a former target from his Oklahoma days where Lamb caught for 807 yards and 4 TDs as a freshman catching passes from Mayfield. Would anyone really be surprised if they pulled another classic Browns move and emphasized talent over needs when selecting ANOTHER receiver?
Boldness meter: 9.5/10