Note: All of these projections are for PPR leagues
Players that are going to be under drafted:
1. David Montgomery: Bears RB
Bears GM Ryan Pace recently stated that Montgomery can "be the team's featured back". Running backs have always been kings in fantasy, and any running back that has a chance to be a feature back is worth a draft in my book. Tarik Cohen is not a traditional running back at all, and while he will take up most of the receiving output of the duo in Chicago, his skill set simply doesn't overlap with Montgomery at all, so there's not much to worry about there. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen coexisted in the Bears offense and Howard is one of the worst catching backs there is. The receiving floor is a question, but if he has the potential to flirt with 20 touches in most games, then he's worth drafting higher than his ADP of 25th running back off the board.
2. Courtland Sutton Broncos WR
I am a big Jerry Jeudy fan. I am not a big Drew Lock fan. So why would I tell you to draft Courtland Sutton? Well, one, even though I don't love the way Drew Lock plays, he is certainly an elite arm talent, and Courtland Sutton is just about as typical of an X receiver you can find, which bodes well for Lock's skillset. Second, even though I am very high on Jeudy as a player, rookie receivers tend to be inconsistent and with the pandemic having a significant impact on camp, it's likely that Jeudy won't have sufficient time to get immediately acclimated to the offense. Despite a relatively crowded—but completely unproven receiving core—the opportunity to draft the unquestioned WR1 in a potential juggernaut offense as the #22 ranked receiver by Fantasy Pros is too good to pass up. This unit is likely going to have its ups and downs, but given the fact that Jeudy, Hamler, and Fant all deserve respect from opposing defenses, it should only make Sutton's life easier leading that unit. If he was able to put up a solid fantasy WR2 season last year with a revolving QB door, I find it hard to believe he won't be able to build on it this next year.
3. Brandin Cooks Texans WR
Another receiver I have been critical of in the past. Cooks has never been able to stick with a team for an extended period of time: likely because he isn't talented enough to be a WR1 on his team, but is too expensive to pay for a WR2 (in a lot of ways he's like a WR1.5). For better or worse though, in the Texans offense, he's going to be the #1 receiver because Will Fuller is simply not complete or consistent enough of a receiver to shoulder that load. Cooks has also performed consistently well everywhere he's gone fantasy-wise. Criminally underrated at the #35 receiver ranked spot Fantasy Pros. I'm very high on this pick.
4. Terry McLaurin Redskins WR
There's literally no way Dwayne Haskins or the offense can get worse this year. If McLaurin put up 900 yards in this offense last year, who knows what he'll do now. I'm not totally convinced of Haskins but at the very least he improved immensely by the end of last season, and McLaurin looked like a budding star. He also played with Haskins at Ohio State, so the chemistry is clearly there. He should be a top 20 fantasy receiver.
5. Cam Newton: Patriots QB
This one is far from a sure thing because 1. Jarrett Stidham still technically could end up being the starter and 2. We don't know if Newton's shoulder is fully healed. Nonetheless, Newton has consistently been a great fantasy QB in the past and the rushing floor is a huge upside. Oh, and he's on the Patriots now. I'm not sure if he's going to be a star, but if you're looking for a backup fantasy QB with fantasy starter potential look no further than Newton.
6. Rob Gronkowski: Buccaneers TE
Most TE's end up as busts. Literally can't see any reason to not pick him at the #13 ranked TE spot. He's playing with Tom Brady again. Again, most tight ends outside the top 3-4 are huge busts historically.
7. Joe Mixon: Bengals RB
It's difficult to say that the 7th ranked RB is going to be "under drafted" but Mixon at the very least should be the #4 ranked back in my book. Mixon had over 1,400 scrimmage yards and 8 TDS despite a horrific team around him, and this offense is primed to make a significant jump in 2020. With a rookie QB the Bengals will look to hand the ball off often in order to take some of the pressure off Burrow, but with an improved receiving core—getting back AJ Green and drafting Tee Higgins—and Burrow being a likely massive upgrade over Dalton it should lead to fewer stacked boxes for Joe Mixon. People also forget that coming out of Oklahoma, Mixon was regarded as a better receiving back than Kamara by a lot of analysts. I've been waiting for years for Mixon to be used to his true all-purpose potential, and with a QB like Burrow who threw to his running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire pretty often at LSU there's no reason he can't do that with Mixon. This could be the year that Mixon shows off his true skillset and puts up a prime Le'Veon Bell-esque season. Draft him over Henry due to the receiving floor and honestly, I would draft him over Alvin Kamara and potentially Dalvin Cook as with the Vikings passing game looking to take a step back teams might key in on stopping Dalvin Cook. A Huge season is in the cards for Mixon.
Sleepers:
1. Marlon Mack: Colts RB
I know the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor. I also know that Jonathan Taylor is really good. It definitely hurts Mack's case that he doesn't catch the ball often, but he still was a high-end fantasy producer last season without it. Marlon Mack is the #44 ranked running back on Fantasy Pros despite rushing for almost 1,100 yards and 8 TDs in only 14 games last season. Worst case scenario Mack is arguably the most talented handcuff in the NFL if Taylor gets the starting job. Best case scenario Mack retains a large workload with an offseason short too short for Taylor to get acclimated. Either way, he'll probably be available until round 13 at the latest.
2. Justin Jefferson: Vikings WR
Jefferson was recently placed on the Reserve/COVID list which is a bit of a concern, but Jefferson is one of the rookies that has the most clear-cut role available as he was drafted as a replacement for Stefon Diggs. He fits the slot receiver role perfectly, and slot receivers are always great picks for PPR fantasy leagues because of the potential for high reception counts. Great late bench pick with a high ceiling for his ADP due to a relatively clear-cut role compared to most rookies.
3. James White: Panthers RB
Yes, Tom Brady is gone. And yes, Tom Brady loved throwing to James White. It doesn't mean that Josh McDaniels isn't going to continue using him in the offense. If Newton starts (which is the most likely outcome), he loved throwing the ball to Christian McCaffrey in Charlotte and while James White doesn't bring the same type of upside as a runner as most fantasy backs, he is still a premier receiving back. Newton is also coming off of a serious shoulder injury, so there might be a lot of check-downs sprinkled into the offense in accordance with his questionable arm health. Even if Stidham ends up starting, there will still be plenty of opportunities for dump-offs, and I would imagine that screens will be a big part of the Patriots offense this year regardless. With an ADP of 31st off the board for running backs, White would make a fantastic potential flex with a high floor in PPR leagues. A safe pick like White also allows for riskier picks elsewhere that might have starter potential, but are worth the splash if you have an insurance policy like White at the flex position.
4. Ronald Jones: Buccaneers RB
With rookie Keshawn Vaughn on the Reserve/COVID list, it is likely that he won't have enough time to get acclimated into the offense early. It also takes a lot for Tom Brady to trust rookies too, so I think it's a safe bet to expect Jones to be the starter (at least early). Jones was an embarrassment his rookie year but had a rock-solid sophomore campaign. With Brady under center, there's no way teams will key in on stopping the run, and beyond that Jones proved that he could catch the ball last season, and we all know that a running back who can catch the ball will always be a staple in the Tom Brady offense. Definitely worth a selection.
5. Diontae Johnson: Steelers WR
The Steelers QB play between Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph was up there for the worst QB production in the NFL. Somehow, even with a sports hernia and that QB play, Johnson managed to put up 680 yards and 6 TDS. With Big Ben under center, there's simply no way that doesn't improve, and with Juju Smith-Schuster likely to draw most of the difficult coverage, Johnson has serious potential to put up a big season.
6. James Conner: Steelers RB
Another Steeler. I put him in the sleeper category rather than the "under-drafted" category because he was a first-round fantasy running back last year. Sure things did not work out for him last year, but the whole Steelers offense was a train-wreck. With Big Ben back, I'd imagine Conner will have a season closer to his star-studded season as a Le'Veon Bell replacement as opposed to his last season injury-riddled performance. He's worth selecting as a top 20 back with massive upside.
Sleeper of the Year:
Denzel Mims: Jets WR
Mims is going into an offense with a very very poor receiving core, but that's honestly a good thing for Mims. Sure he's probably gonna face a lot of difficult coverage but he possibly could place immediately as the #1 receiver on the Jets. Also, since Adam Gase hates running backs the Jets are probably going to throw the ball a lot. Now I'm not sold on Darnold but he is certainly not afraid to force the ball into coverage, and there's really not going to be a lot of target competition for Mims. Gase doesn't use Bell enough as a receiver, Crowder is an unspectacular slot receiver, and it feels like a stretch to expect Breshad Perriman to be their WR1. Both Mims and Perriman are good value picks, but given Mims's lower ADP, Mims is perhaps the only player that can be selected in the last round of the draft (his ADP is 67 off the board) who could be the #1 receiver on his team. Rookie receivers are tough to hit on in fantasy but this dude is really really talented and given a potential role on his team, Mims is an extreme sleeper to be a fantasy winner. Is it a shot in the dark? Sure, but might as well try.