Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury
(Courtesy clutchpoints.com)
Written by, Jake Hatch
It is no secret that the NFL is a copycat league. For years, teams tried to (unsuccessfully) model their systems and team atmospheres after the New England Patriots by hiring former Belichick employees hoping to catch a spark of the Foxboro magic. A few off-seasons ago though, the head coach hiring strategy changed for much of the NFL. Instead of teams gunning for older, more experienced, defensive-minded head coaches, the "new-wave" for a few teams became favoring younger, largely unproven, offensive-focused head coaches à la Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. Out of all of the questionable hirings of coaches that fit this mold—like Zac Taylor or Matt Lafleur—perhaps none was more surprising, and controversial than current Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Prior to the last offseason, the consensus among NFL analysts was that if any coach were to make the jump from the NCAA to the NFL, it would likely be Oklahoma Head Coach Lincoln Riley. The Arizona Cardinals were one of the teams clearly looking to overhaul their staff but, few would've predicted the Cardinals to take a risk on Kingsbury. After all, Kingsbury was a career losing coach at Texas Tech, compiling a 35-40 record and consistently trucking out embarrassingly poor defensive units (yes Pat Mahomes really did lose a game in college where he threw for over 700 yards). While Kingsbury's biggest accomplishment at Texas Tech was coaching Patrick Mahomes, in a league that lives by the mantra "defense wins championships", the decision to select a career losing college coach with consistently poor defensive performance seemed a like a massive stretch.
Post-hiring, Kingsbury immediately overhauled the Cardinals by dumping the previous year's first-round pick QB Josh Rosen in favor of drafting the former collegiate football and baseball player, Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the first pick. The Kingsbury roster design included some other interesting draftees, especially the decision to reach for UMASS speedster WR Andy Isabella in the 2nd round over a big name in WR DK Metcalf, and some other solid names such as WRs Terry McLaurin and WR Miles Boykin. The plan was clear: Kingsbury had been given the freedom to select players that he felt would fit into his "Air-Raid" scheme, and the Cardinals were putting all their eggs in Kingsbury's basket. Like many in the NFL, I was skeptical of the move when the news first broke that Kingsbury would be the new Head Coach of the Cardinals, however after an up-and-down season with a 5-10-1 record, poor defensive play, and the ROY performance of Kyler Murray, the question still remains. Is Kliff Kingsbury the right person to be coaching the Arizona Cardinals?
First of all, I think the most important thing for the Cardinals is the development of young QB Kyler Murray. The team is not particularly strong on defense outside of perennial sack-champion competitor Chandler Jones, strong safety Budda Baker, and aging corner Patrick Peterson. The focus of the squad really lies in the offense and the growing supply of weapons in Phoenix. While there were certainly some major bright spots for the team this year—a 27-13 win against the Seahawks, an almost-comeback performance in the 28-25 loss to the eventual NFC Champion 49ers—the 10 loss season certainly left a lot to be desired.
Despite the up-and-down season, I actually do believe that Kliff Kingsbury is the right coach for the team at this current moment. Only time will tell if he is the coach of the future for the team, but if I were a Cardinals executive, he would have my unwavering support this season. It is likely that the team will fire Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph if his defense continues to struggle at the beginning of the season, so if the Cardinals move onto another D-Coordinator but still produce similar results, given Kingsbury's poor defensive track record at Texas Tech it could be a shot to his hopes of staying with the team long-term. Additionally, if Kyler Murray establishes himself as an upper-tier QB, Kingsbury will have to prove that he's more than an offensive football mind: will he be able to instill the discipline and consistency required to take a playoff team from an early exit to a Super Bowl contender? I have my doubts about whether Kingsbury will be able to stand up to some of the pressures of being a playoff contender in the future, however, in the 2020-21 season, there is no doubt in my mind that Kingsbury is the guy that should be leading them.
I know you've probably heard about Kingsbury's "Air-Raid" offense on some major sports network. Though terms like "Air-Raid" or "Spread Offense" might set off sirens in the heads of some NFL old-timers, the Cardinals offensive scheme really isn't that radical. The average NFL team in 2019 took 63% of snaps out of the shotgun, Patrick Mahomes claims that he didn't even know how to read a defense until midway through 2018, and running backs are getting slimmer and more adept to pass-catching, running the ball less, pass-blocking less and participating in far more running-back by committee situations. Sure the Cardinals took 87% of snaps out of shotgun—which is an extremely high number— but the Ravens, who were the most successful offense of 2019, took 96% of snaps out of the Gun. The "West-Coast" offense former standard of the NFL has evolved into a spread-offense hybrid and based on the trajectory of teams moving towards taking more snaps out of the shotgun, the Air-Raid offensive scheme looks like it's likely the wave of the future.
So what exactly is an Air-Raid offense? In short, it is a pass-heavy, shotgun-dominated scheme that features frequent no-huddle play-calling, slimmer pass-catching running backs, and often mobile quarterbacks. In a pass-heavy spread offense, there is usually a "flex Tight End" who essentially is a Tight End that often plays out of the slot, and places greater importance on route-running as a matchup nightmare, as opposed to the traditional blocking duties of a Tight End. Mark Andrews on the Ravens is an example of this, however, he did significantly improve his run-blocking this year. These simplified no-huddle offenses of the Air-Raid speed up play, which makes it difficult for defenses to truck out advanced disguised coverages, therefore making it easier for the quarterback to read the defenses. If an Air-Raid offense is functioning correctly, it should be near, if not be at the top of the total snaps taken per game rankings.
The Air-Raid offense subs out massive playbooks for condensed ones, limiting pass plays to a few concepts that feature routes that cover all levels of the field such as Mesh, All-Curl, Y-Corner, Y-Stick, Shallow Cross. Sounds too simple to work? Well, the major wrinkle in the air-raid scheme is the improvisational freedom that it gives to receivers. While the primary goal is to get the ball out quickly like any other NFL offense, the Air-Raid offense has some similarities to the Patriots option-route based play-calls for receivers. While the option routes are not as detailed as the Patriots scheme—as it's more difficult to call option-routes no-huddle—if a receiver feels that they are going to be covered, they are given the freedom to adjust their route based on the post-snap read, somewhat similar to a backyard football game. It still requires the QB and the receiver to be on the same page and still takes an immense amount of football IQ and processing speed to execute mid-play, it's just a little bit different than the typical "option-route" offense. This room for post-snap route-adjustment is one of the main reasons why it is helpful to have a mobile QB because it allows the receivers more time to be able to adjust their routes mid-play. Kyler Murray is the perfect QB for the job: he's a smart, athletic quarterback who has solid arm strength and is extremely accurate both inside and outside of the pocket. He certainly can be a premier running quarterback, but he tends to evade the pocket to extend the amount of time he has to throw the ball, rather than giving up on the play early. He was a well-deserved ROY winner in 2019, and while there is a lot of good QBs in 2020, with his strong supporting cast, he is a legitimate dark-horse MVP candidate.
Let's talk about the supporting cast. Deandre Hopkins is the big name in town this year after the Cardinals committed highway robbery, stealing him from the Texans in truly one of the most lopsided trades of all time. Hopkins is the prototypical X-receiver, and there's not much else to be said: he has been an absolute stud throughout his career, and will continue to be an absolute stud as a Cardinal. Christian Kirk is a good route-running, elusive, athletic receiver who played 32.5% of his snaps in the slot. His skillset plays well as a difficult athletic matchup in the slot, and while his lack of play-strength somewhat limits his upside as a wideout, I expect that the addition of Hopkins will allow Kirk to take most of his snaps in the slot: which will likely allow for a more productive 2020 campaign for the young receiver. Receiver Andy Isabella is a speed demon that will likely play a relatively large role on the team as both a decoy and a gadget player. I felt he was too high of a reach in the 2nd round (although he undeniably fits the scheme), however, I believe he has the chance to be a big help for the team both on and off the stat sheet. With his 4.27 speed—many scouts at the combine timed his 40 as a 4.27, not a 4.31 which is his officially posted time—there are few, if any, cornerbacks that can match up with him stride for stride. As a result, regardless of his football talent level (which I still have some questions about), teams will have to think long and hard about whether they are willing to leave him in one-on-one coverage, as any team who plays man-coverage against them obviously will HAVE to double-cover Hopkins. Like Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs, they can line Isabella up in the slot opposite Kirk in 4-5 WR sets, or have him play the outside and run vertical routes to shade the defensive backs away from the middle of the field. Teams are going to have to respect his speed, and it will certainly distract them from all of the other weapons they will have to cover across the field. He also will play some sort of role in taking handoffs on end-arounds and reverses, so don't be surprised if he takes a carry or two to the house as well. Oh, and don't forget Larry Fitzgerald caught for over 800 yards last year too, is still a pretty damn good receiver at this age, and is essentially a receivers coach on the field as well.
But wait there's more. There's another wrinkle in the roster that I don't think a lot of people are paying enough attention to. Hakeem Butler was a fourth-round pick out of Iowa State in the 2019 draft before he missed the whole 2019-20 season with a finger injury. This is a guy that some people genuinely compared to Calvin Johnson going into the draft. I know what you're thinking, are you really telling me that the next Calvin Johnson fell to the fourth round? Well, no I'm not saying that I personally think he's the next Calvin Johnson, but there are some parts of that comparison that actually do make sense. After all, he did lead the NCAA in "explosive plays" on deep targets (19) according to Pro Football Focus. He's 6'5, 227 pounds, runs a 4.48, absolutely destroys people both at the line of scrimmage and after the catch with his strength/size combination, and is impossible to box out when high-pointing the ball due to his insane reach. Not to mention there are plays at Iowa State where he runs over the whole entire secondary and embarrasses defenders with his punishing stiff-arms. I mean if you only watched this dude's highlight tape he literally looks like Calvin Johnson, DK Metcalf, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, and Josh Gordon all mashed into one receiver.
So what's the catch? Now, if you actually watch his tape you'll find that he is a very raw player, who somewhat un-agile, lacks both quickness and detail in his route-running, and relies too much on his strength and raw athleticism as opposed to his technique. Worst of all though, Butler sometimes completely forgets how to catch a football. I'm not talking about the occasional focus drop that can be offset by his insane spectacular catching ability, this dude literally sometimes flat-out cannot catch a football. As noted by PFF, in 2018 he dropped 11 out of his 77 catchable balls in 2018. That simply cannot happen at the NFL level, and if he doesn't fix this problem, there's no chance Kyler Murray will trust him enough to throw the ball his way. He's not the most refined player (even less so than DK Metcalf was in my opinion), but after watching the whole NFL community over-analyze Metcalf's struggles only to watch him put up a fantastic rookie campaign, I'm not really that worried about Butler adjusting this year.
With opposing defenses already having to deal with the headache of covering all the other receivers in this offense, I can't imagine that teams will have any good cornerbacks left to effectively match-up with Butler, and given his raw ability, I don't think it's crazy to expect him to absolutely devour low-caliber cornerbacks. Sure with Hopkins, Kirk and Fitzgerald likely to take up a large percentage of targets it will be difficult for Isabella and Butler to coexist in the offense both with significant target shares, but they are still both polar opposite receivers, and at the very least will command enough respect due to their athleticism to draw coverage away from both Hopkins and Kirk. Hell, the Cardinals could even have Butler line up at tight end for some snaps. The Tight-End isn't really used as much for blocking in an Air-Raid system anyways as they barely run from under center, and rarely run the ball on later downs: and in obvious passing downs, the tight end is going to be running routes in this system anyways. Butler is certainly big enough to stand in at the tight end position, and unless teams want to cover a tight end with a corner, there are few non-corners other than Jamal Adams that could cover Butler. It's not like Maxx Williams or Dan Arnold are really going to make major impacts at the tight end position anyways. Sure, obviously the Cardinals shouldn't use Butler as a tight-end that often as it isn't his natural position, but in a 3rd in 12 scenario, is there really any reason he can't run his routes from the tight end position as opposed to running them as a wideout?
We haven't even talked about the running backs either. Yes, the focus of the Cardinals in 2020 will be on the passing game, but I think the running backs in this system will also play a significant role as well. Kenyan Drake has always been viewed as a decent pass-catching back, but I think he has the ability to be a very good pass-catching back. He runs better routes than most running backs I've seen, has good hands despite a few drops, and is very shifty after the catch. He's also criminally underrated as a runner as well. People also forget that Drake led the league in rushing yards the last 5 games in 2017 with 444 once he gained the starting job for the Dolphins, and single-handedly made the AFC Champion Patriots look bad with a 193 yards from scrimmage. It's not Drake's fault that Adam Gase's offensive scheme is a running back graveyard: just look at Le'Veon Bell. Drake receives some flack for losing yards too often trying to play hero ball—something Saquon Barkley is just as guilty for—but his main justifiable criticism is that he is a terrible pass-blocking back. In the Air-Raid offense, he will likely be running routes on most of his snaps anyways, so I don't see it to be as big of a problem in Kingsbury's offense. It really was of no surprise to me that Drake excelled as a runner for the Cardinals, rushing for 643 yards and 8 TDS on just 123 carries in 8 games, as despite not being the grittiest runner in between the tackles, he runs well out of the shotgun as it allows him more time to hit holes and use his speed, quickness and explosiveness to his advantage, and I see no reason he won't pick up right where he left off next season. Not to mention Chase Edmonds is also a good
#2 back, and will allow Drake to stay fresh.
I genuinely don't know how it is even possible to defend the Cardinals offense. Play man-coverage and there are too many matchup nightmares to handle, play zone-coverage and the adaptive route-running of the Air-Raid scheme allows receivers to adjust their routes to sit down in holes: and with Kyler Murray's ability to extend plays, the receivers will have even more time to do so. It would also probably be a good idea to drop a spy on most passing downs, because in case you forgot, Murray ran for 544 yards last season, and not that he needs to, but he could likely flirt with 1,000 yards rushing if he really wanted to. Oh, and don't forget that most of the offense is run no-huddle, so defenses don't even really have time to disguise their coverages either. Honestly, if I were a defensive coordinator I'd probably be up all-night the whole week before playing the Cardinals because I really don't think there's a good way to stop them. The best idea is probably to shower Murray with constant blitzes every down using plenty of pre-snap linebacker movement to make sure that Murray hesitates a second longer post-snap when identifying blitzes. Murray is 5'9, and while I've never felt that this was nearly as big of a deal as some people made it out to be, he was tied for the league lead in sacks taken last year. While some of that was on his O-Line (which I imagine will improve a bit this year after they stole Houston OT Josh Jones in the 3rd round), it's really the only significant weakness that is apparent in Murray's game. He was also only a rookie last year, so I wouldn't even count on this being as much of an issue this year. To put it lightly, opposing defenses are kind of screwed no matter what they do: which I'm sure is exactly what all other 31 NFL defensive coordinators wanted to hear.
Obviously, the Cardinals will still need to execute—and that's easier said than done—but I think it's safe to say that it is within reason to expect that the Cardinals offense is primed for a monster year. Sure their defense still has a lot of questions, but given the makeup of the offense—which is largely due to his player selection—Kingsbury looks to be the right coach to lead this team to a massive step forward in 2020. Once the team propels itself into playoff contention, they may need to reevaluate if Kingsbury struggles to lead his team through the rigors of the playoffs. It is also possible in the next few years that Kingsbury ends up looking more suited for a role as an Offensive Coordinator, but there's no doubt in my mind that Kingsbury will prove that he belongs in the NFL this year. This offense truly does have the potential to be one of the best units in the league, and if there's any team that I don't think is getting enough hype for how exciting they will be to watch in 2020, it's the Arizona Cardinals.
Do yourself a favor, and turn on an Arizona Cardinals game this season.