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Tampa Bay Rays RHP Tyler Glasnow (Credit: MLB)

Written by Johnny Maffei October 20, 2020

The Los Angeles Dodgers are hoping it's "third times the charm" at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas Tuesday night as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the first neutral site World Series since the '40s.

This is the third time the Dodgers have been in the Fall Classic in the last four years, and after overcoming a 3-1 series deficit against Atlanta, they feel they have the momentum to finally get this group a ring.

Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts is obviously very happy to be back as he could very well be coaching for his job, even this deep into the playoffs.

The Rays however, don't look like they know how to celebrate.  Just a normal high-five line, I guess they haven't won anything yet, but you can be a little excited after taking down the trashcan banging AL powerhouse.

Enough burying the lead, time to get down to business.  Tyler Glasnow is matching up against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 Tuesday.  Advantage Rays on this one, and the starting pitching category in general.

Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of his generation.  He would be the undisputed ace of this category if he didn't constantly blow leads every October.  Glasnow has been fine this postseason giving up 12 ER in 19.1 IP and, most importantly, he's kept his club in the game.  

My keys in Game 1 for Glasnow are simple:

  • Limit damage
  • Don't leave offspeed over the plate
  • Get it to the pen within striking distance

This is much, much easier said than done against the squad with MLB's highest run differential, but if he checks those three boxes, Kershaw cannot be trusted.

LAD announced Walker Beuhler is starting Game 3, Friday, which is advantage Dodgers unless Yarbrough, who could slide in to the Game 3 slot between Blake Snell Game 2 (official) and Charlie Morton Game 4 (probable), shuts down the best lineup in baseball.  

Beuhler could very well be pitching down 2-0 in the series when he takes the hill Friday.  

I BELIEVE in this Rays rotation, here's the proof in my bracket I filled out before the craziness started:

Johnny Maffei's lone 2020 MLB Bracket Contest entry.

I clearly flunked the NLDS round as I had the Padres and Reds moving on, but if you look up top I correctly picked the ALCS winner.  

Tampa Bay has been waiting for this.  They brushed off AL East foes Toronto and New York, and took their time with Houston, but to those who are surprised to see the Rays succeed, just take a look at the past few years.  If you plug this years .667 win pct into a 162 game season the Rays were on pace for roughly 108 wins in 2020.  

How does that play out over the last decade?
  • 3rd consecutive 90+ win season
  • Seven 90+ win seasons the last 11 years
  • Eight 90+ win seasons the last 13 years (since changing from Devil Rays to Rays in 2008)
With one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, their regular season success has not translated to the playoffs.  I've been saying for years you can NEVER HAVE ENOUGH pitching, especially starting pitching.  Tampa Bay finally has some elite pitching that contains a combination of both homegrown and acquired talent EXECUTING and dominating against AL lineups.

One of their acquisitions, Charlie Morton, is coming off of a little revenge tour after going 2-0 in 2 starts shutting out his former team over 10.2 IP in the ALCS, including a clutch Game 7 win.

Morton has lowered his career postseason ERA to 2.84 this year giving up only 1ER in 15.2IP.  Like I said, he should slide right into Game 4 on Saturday for a Rays bounce-back win after Beuhler controls Game 3.

But Morton is the only Ray with World Series experience, while almost all of the Dodgers have Fall Classic receipts.

When you look at the lineups it's advantage Dodgers.  Let's start with the $392 Million man.

I wonder if his former boss John Henry is watching?

He has the World Series experience the Dodgers need, given they lost to him just 2 years ago.

And when you look at the rest of the Dodger lineup, yes, it's OOOZING in playoff and World Series experience, but does that matter?

It can be looked at a few ways:

  • They have experience coming up short
    OR

  • They know the moment
Will this be Dave Roberts 3rd strike? Will Kevin Cash take down one of the highest payrolls in baseball with one of the lowest? If this was college football, Cash would already have a sweet gig lined up with the Red Sox or Yankees next year.  

The rest of the Dodgers offense (besides Betts) remembers coming up short.  They have been so close.  Their instant reaction after clinching the NLCS seemed like a sigh of relief before their grins filled the diamond.  Turner and Bellinger and Hernandez and Seager have a lot of pressure on them.  According to Spotrac.com the Dodgers 2020 prorated payroll is almost $70 million higher than the Rays.  There was a $143 million difference between the 2020 AL & NL champs in 2019.

I like Tampa Bay winning the series 4-2.  I see their 2 losses probably being to Beuhler and one game that the Dodgers bats get to both the Rays starter and the pen. If all goes according to me (LOL), Beuhler will have to decide if he wants to go on short rest or not Game 6.

This could very well go either way.  I'm not backtracking my points at all, but the Dodgers lineup can take it right to this inexperienced Rays staff and give Roberts' extremely ADROIT pitching staff a SUPERFLUITY of run support.

It all starts Tuesday and without a dog in the fight, I hope it comes down extras early next Thursday morning in a potential Game 7. 

Emerson College '22 | Co-host/Producer of Ridin' Pine | Fmr #1 Show on WSFR | Fmr Full Press Coverage Patriots Writer | Socials: @johnnymaffei45