Written by Sam Gutkin
On the third day of Christmas, Steve Cohen gave to me, Trevor Bauer pitching at Citi
The Mets' strength for most of their franchise history has been pitching. Their successful teams of this era (2015 World Series team and 2016 Wild Card team) were no exception. The 2015 squad was top 3 in the league for both ERA and WHIP, while the 2016 Mets were 4th in ERA and 8th in WHIP. These teams hit well (96 and 97 OPS+ respectively) but their success came from the arms.
This unfortunately has changed and the 2020 Mets had an ERA and WHIP that were close to the worst league-wide. The pitching staff wasn't what made New York competitive this past year, it was the bats, who led the whole MLB with a 122 OPS+. That should presumably get even better next season as new signee James McCann is an upgrade over Wilson Ramos and Pete Alonso will certainly come back from his sophomore slump. This is promising because even though last year was a disappointment at large, the offensive success means that with pitching success they can be even better than they were when they won the pennant.
The Mets clearly need to fix their pitching staff, and the first step of a solution is to diagnose the problem. Much of it wasn't anybody's fault. Noah Syndergaard was out with a torn UCL the whole season and Marcus Stroman opted out before appearing in a single game. They both should be back for the full 2021 campaign and that alone will be a huge help. The drop off from 2015-16 to 2020 wasn't just the lack of those two though, it also can be pinned on the career collapse of Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler leaving, and Steven Matz not developing as expected. Syndergaard and Stroman's return will be huge, but what the Mets really need to get back to where they were is another arm. The arm they need is Trevor Bauer
Bauer is the reigning NL Cy Young winner following his breakout season for the Reds last year, where he had a 1.73 ERA, a 0.795 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. Some say Bauer is set up for a fall back down to earth (since that season came in a very weak division) and they may be right, but his newfound success wasn't just due to his division and much of it will remain as he leaves the central. His meteoric rise can also be credited to the fact that he's one of the hardest working pitchers in the game and that work has paid off with his stuff (and spin rate) improving just about every year. That will not only stay with him as he moves to the NL East, but those improvements will presumably continue to grow as he continues to work.
The elephant in the room with a Bauer signing is his insistence on a 1-year contract, but I see that as a positive anyway. Yes, it'll make the Mets winning window very brief, but that'll just pressure them to get even more pieces for this coming season. It'll also mean that IF Bauer is a bust, it'll hurt for one year instead of 6-10.
Although Bauer won't be the ace, and may or may not be the #2, he will be a HUGE piece to what will be the best rotation in the MLB and one of the best in Met History. deGrom, Bauer, Syndergaard, Stroman, Peterson. Lock it up. The Mets are back. Get it done Uncle Steve!
Stay tuned for the fourth Day of Christmas, tomorrow! Only on RidinPineMGH.Blogspot.com