On the 5th day of Christmas the offseason gave to me: a pass rush for the New England Patriots.
I know what you're thinking. "The Pats need a QB," "The Pats defense isn't the problem," "Why don't we sign more receivers?" I get it. I agree. I personally love the way Cam Newton has handled himself this year in front of the media, and it's clear that his teammates respect both him and his superb work ethic. Regardless, I place as much of the blame on Newton as I do McDaniels play-calling: he couldn't deal with a running QB when he had Tim Tebow, and he can't do it now, either. There's way too many QB draws, not enough read-options, and it seems a little bit ridiculous that Cam Newton simply is not allowed to throw the ball in the red zone. Yes Cam has made some horrifically inaccurate throws, and I know our receiving core is well below-average, but outside of the Rams game, the O-line has been the strength of this offensive unit, and I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world to allow Cam to stand in the pocket and throw the ball. After all he threw the ball 44 times for 397 passing yards against the Seahawks Week 2 in what was likely his best game as a Patriot, and the alternative of not trusting him to throw the ball has clearly not helped.
I'm not at all convinced Cam is the QB of the future, but I think he deserves a chance to show what he actually can do over the last three weeks. He's been one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL over the last few weeks, and if he doesn't figure it out over the last three weeks, it's probably time to move on. Regardless, I don't think he is our only issue.
Given how glaring the offensive struggles have been for the Pats, it is easy to forget that the Pats' pass rush is one of the worst units in the NFL. The only teams with fewer sacks per game than the Patriots (1.5) are the Lions, Jaguars, Raiders, and Bengals, all of which have terrible secondaries who rank in the top 10 for passing yards allowed (except for the Bengals who are 11th). The Patriots, on the other hand, have one of the better secondaires in the league including two premier corners in Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson. These other teams don't have the luxury of coverage sacks given their awful secondaries—like the Pats do—so I think it is a fair assessment to say that the Patriots have the worst pass rush unit in the NFL, as the secondary in theory should be giving them more time to make plays as opposed to secondaries of the other struggling pass rushes in the league.
Bill Belichick has always opted for pass rushers that fit his defensive scheme over supremely talented ones, but any team would have a serious problem on their hands if their most talented pass rusher was Chase Winovich. Getting Dont'a Hightower back will be a big help, as he is the mic for the defense as the MLB, but at the age of 31, his utility comes more from his ability to lead at this point in his career as opposed to his talent. The one perk of the pass rush is that while "key" young players Ja'Whaun Bentley, Deatrich Wise and Adam Butler have had little success with rushing the QB, they are all young players who will continue to develop, and at least have a chance to be impact players in the future. The issue is that players like Bentley and Butler who have generally filled their roles well, should not be expected to regularly rush the passer as Bentley is an ILB and Butler is a 300lb DT. Due to the extreme talent deficiencies on this front seven, though, they've been some of the most successful players with dialing up pressure on this team. Sure, the run defense has also been a liability, but that will happen when a team has outside rushers that struggle to set the edge on outside runs, and interior pieces that are tasked with too much responsibility.
The Patriots defensive scheme employees both 3-4 and 4-3 sets. I'm not worried about our interior players: Hightower will be back as a MLB, Butler and Guy have been solid as DT's, and Bentley looks promising as an ILB. I think the first step for this team is to get John Simon off the field at all costs. He's not an athletic player, can't rush the QB, misses assignments and commits brutal miscues, with this most recent Rams game was by far his worst game. Deatrich Wise has also been one of the team's "best pass-rushers," but with only 2.5 sacks, 2 TFL and 9 QB hits in 13 games there is certainly some left to be desired. This year's second round draft pick Josh Uche hasn't been on the field much, and hopefully he can be an impact player in the future, but as of right now we still don't really know what we're working with.
This team has a lot of young depth on it, and while I believe a team can never have too many pass rushers, this team needs some more firepower, specifically edge rushers and OLBs that can set the edge and take pressure off interior players to allow them to key in on stopping the run. Most of all though, we just need more talented pass rushers that can put up high sack totals, and hurry opposing QBs into making ill-advised throws. We've spent way too many draft picks on our secondary at this point (seriously, it's getting ridiculous), and whether or not that unit continues to perform in the future at the level it has in the past two seasons, it's time for Belichick to look elsewhere in the draft for help.
I'm not sure if Belichick will look to the draft or to free agency for defensive help, but there are some big names available in the edge rusher market. Buccaneers LB Shaquil Barrett would be a big help, but would also come with a huge price tag after leading the league in sacks in 2019. Washington LB Ryan Kerrigan is likely too old for it to make sense for the Pats to go after him, but Ravens LB Matt Judon could be a better—similar level—option entering his age 29 season. Judon's teammate, Yannick Ngakoue could be another choice for a high price as well. Additionally, if Steelers LB Bud Dupree looks like he could be healthy by the season after tearing his ACL two weeks ago, the Patriots could take a risk and sign him, as he is a premier talent who would be going into his age 28 season, and likely come at a discount after his ACL injury.
The Pats have the options in the pass rush market—with over $41 million projected in cap space next season—but the question is whether they'll prioritize going after WRs or a QB. I would imagine the Pats resign WR Damiere Byrd, and while many of the FA receivers will likely be re-signed by their teams, the early free agent market consists standout WRs like the Bears' Allen Robinson, the Bucs' Chris Godwin, the Titans' Corey Davis, the Texans' Will Fuller, the Steelers' Juju Smith Schuster, the Colts' T.Y Hilton among many other talented players. I think the Pats' moves in the offseason depends on how the receiver free agent market shakes out, but regardless if it's through the draft or free agency, the pass rush needs to be just as much of a focus for this team as the receiver room and QB situation is in 2021.
Please Bill Belichick. Stop drafting cornerbacks and safeties. If you're not gonna pick receivers or a QB please. Just pick a pass rusher.
Stay tuned for the rest of the Ridin' Pine #12DaysofChristmas series every day leading up to Christmas!