The Playoff Picture is taking form. After a couple upsets and a couple blowouts, Week 14 is going to be great TV.
All times are 1:00 p.m. ET unless otherwise noted.
THURSDAY
NEW ENGLAND @ LOS ANGELES (N) 8:20 P.M. ET
Jake: Pats
Sam: Rams
Johnny: _____
If you didn’t already know, I don’t pick Pats games. I will comment on this one, though. The Rams & Pats have both been trending upward and Belichick has certainly had McVay & Goff’s number (see Super Bowl LIII), but the Rams have the 3rd best rush D in the NFL. We’ll see how it goes.
SUNDAY
Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Jake: Buccaneers
The Vikings have been hot, winning (5 out of their last 6 games while the Bucs have started to crash back to earth as their team chemistry gets exposed. This Mike Zimmer defense has had a lot of young pieces this year specifically at the cornerback position, and while the Vikings held onto key members like Harrison Smith, Anthony Harris and Eric Kendricks, they’ve had somewhat of a revolving door at cornerback. They’ve played better as of late, but playing against Tom Brady is still a test for any defense. I know he’s not on the Pats anymore, but I’d still never bet against Brady coming out of a bye week.
Sam: Buccaneers
Johnny: Buccaneers
The Bucs really need a W coming out of the bye, especially since a loss could propel the Vikings into their own spot. I think Brady and the other disciplined team leaders have cleaned some of their mistakes up and are ready to tear up the NFL in their hunt for the playoffs.
Kansas City @ Miami
Jake: Chiefs
This will be a fun matchup because the Dolphins have one of the most talented secondaries in the league (which would be even better if they still had Minkah), but beating Chiefs is not really about personnel, as there are simply no cornerbacks that can match Tyreek Hill 1 on 1, and there are few players that have the size speed combination to stick with Travis Kelce. If this is anything like when Flores neutralized the Chiefs in the 2018 playoffs for the Pats, we’ll see a lot of cover 1 base looks with their most athletic, least aggressive/mistake prone corner Byron Jones following Hill with safety help from McCain overtop, while they put their best corner—Xavien Howard—on Kelce to shut him down just like Gilmore did. The blitz packages will be the key to success if they can effectively confuse Mahomes, and make him hold the ball long enough to take sacks or force inaccurate throws. It is still Mahomes though, and stopping him is easier said than done, and given that the Dolphins are still figuring out their identity on offense, I’m choosing the Chiefs here.
Sam: Chiefs
Johnny: Chiefs
After not performing up to his normal standards, it will be interesting to see how Mahomes does against Dolphins HC Brian Flores & Co. The Chiefs are due for a loss, I just don’t think it’ll come this week.
Arizona @ New York (N)
Jake: Cardinals
A matchup of two QBs I loved out of college. Murray has struggled since he injured his shoulder, and despite being a fantastic (and underrated) passing quarterback, at his height it is simply difficult for him to sit behind the line consistently to make throws. Kyler is the classic quarterback that moves around to read the field and make throws as opposed to always tucking and running, so we’ll see if he seems back to his normal self. Regardless the Giants are getting back a Daniel Jones that seemed to rush himself back from a hamstring injury, which I don’t think is a better situation for them.
Sam: Cardinals
The Giants have exceeded expectations the past couple of weeks to say the least but this game is where I draw the line. They're still a team without their star player and with shaky QB play. New York has been solid against the pass in general this year but I don't trust them in this game vs Kyler Murrey.
Johnny: Cardinals
I think the NFL thinks the Giants will win this week. They just bumped their Week 15 matchup against the Browns to SNF. Obviously if they lose the game will still have playoff implications because their division stinks. I think Arizona’s stakes are higher and they have lost to some great teams and coaches the last few weeks and, though people are realizing Joe Judge is a good coach, the Cardinals should take care of his players in New Jersey.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Jake: Titans
Derrick Henry is going to run all over the Jaguars.
Sam: Titans
Johnny: Titans
Dallas @ Cincinnati
Jake: Cowboys
Talk about a game I have no interest in watching, but this Bengals team is horrendous without Burrow.
Sam: Cowboys
Just when I thought the cowboys might be passable again (Dalton’s return and the win vs the Vikings) they had to go and prove me wrong. They’ve been back to looking terrible but it’ll be hard for ANYONE to lose to this Burrow-less Bengals team.
Johnny: Cowboys
Flip a coin
Houston @ Chicago
Jake: Texans
The Bears have played their last 6 games like we all expected would eventually when they were hot at the beginning of the season. The Bears don’t have a QB, and they continue to avoiding throwing the ball to Allen Robinson, who is far and away their best weapon. Give me Watson here.
Sam: Texans
Johnny: Texans
Nagy has gone from coach in the year to being a big part of why the Bears are losing in just 2 seasons.
Denver @ Carolina
Jake: Broncos
Lock is truly one of the least accurate passers I’ve ever seen. Thank you for listening
Sam: Panthers
Johnny: Panthers
This is the type of game Lock could go off but make me assume the Broncos are depleted and will lose. They are coming off a good performance against the defending champs and could use that momentum to their advantage against Teddy Bridgewater, but they’ve too inconsistent to pick them.
New York (A) @ Seattle 4:05 p.m. ET
Jake: Seahawks
Sam: Seahawks
Not even watching this game. Unless the Jets pull out a miracle in the last four weeks probably not even supporting this team anymore. Last week was a BLATANT example of an intentional loss and I don't know why I’d waste my time rooting for a team that doesn't want to win.
Johnny: Seahawks
Indianapolis @ Las Vegas 4:05 p.m. ET
Jake: Colts
The Raiders always seemed fake to me: a backwards, archaic offense with limited talent outside of Jacobs and Riggs, with a defense that was over performing. Somehow they played as well as they did against the Chiefs both times, but they seem to be showing their true colors. The Colts on the other hand, are looking more and more like the Colts of the Andrew Luck era that will actually make it to the playoffs to get knocked out early.
Sam: Colts
Johnny: Colts
The Raiders are going to find themselves out of the playoff picture shortly. They just got whooped by the Falcons and should’ve lost to the NEW JERSEY JETS, who were trying to LOSE. The Colts have too much to fight for and Rivers has the weapons to move Indy to 9-4.
New Orleans @ Philadelphia 4:25 p.m. ET
Jake: Saints
Sam: Saints
Yes Carson Wentz is bad and it's time for Hurts to at least get a shot, but let's not pretend Wentz was playing in an ideal scenario. His line is awful and he doesn't really have anybody to throw to. This isn't exactly the perfect opportunity for Hurts to succeed and I wouldn't expect him to come in and set the world on fire. The Eagles still lose to the Saints.
Johnny: Saints
If New Orleans were to drop a game during Brees’ absence, it would be this one because of two words: Jalen. Hurts. Doug Pederson is making the right choice in benching Wentz and giving his rookie, who provided a spark against the Packers last week, a shot.
Washington @ San Francisco 4:25 p.m. ET
Jake: Football Team
Mullens has always been a good garbage time passer, but he’s not anything more than an upper level backup: which is still impressive for a UDFA. This Football Team defense (specifically pass rush) is too good and even though their offense is missing Antonio Gibson, I think Smith can avoid turnovers and dink and dunk his way to a win.
Sam: Football Team
The Football team is hot! And the 9ers have lost four of their last five. The only thing that gives me pause is that the strength of Washington is their pass rush and the team that San Francisco has had the most success against this year is the Rams (also known for their pass rushing) but I still just think the Football Team is a superior squad right now (there's something I thought I’d never say)
Johnny: 49ers
I think this game will come down to QB performance. It will come down to Mullens and Smith. Yes Washington is coming off of their win of the year, but Mullens is facing a similar defense he faced last week, but won’t need to keep up with the offense as much and will get the W.
Atlanta @ Los Angeles (A) 4:25 p.m. ET
Jake: Falcons
This Chargers team just can’t figure it out. This is a matchup against two teams that cannot finish games and while the Falcons are notorious for choking, I can’t pick the Chargers after the game they put up last week against the Pats.
Sam: Falcons
Herbert may be a Rookie of the Year contender but he still has only won twice this year (vs the worst teams in football the Jaguars and the Jets). The Falcons on the other hand have rattled off a couple solid victories and look much stronger than they did early in the season.
Johnny: Falcons
Green Bay @ Detroit 4:25 p.m. ET (originally scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jake: Packers
Sam: Packers
Johnny: Packers
Thank goodness they moved this game to the 4:25 slot, what would I ever do without seeing ARodg playing another inferior opponent. GB is 2-3 vs .500+ teams, luckily for them: Detroit is nowhere near that category.
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo 8:20 p.m. ET
Jake: Steelers
Josh Allen has proven me wrong, but I think he struggles here against a Steelers defense that’s still littered with studs.
Sam: Steelers
Bet the under
Johnny: Bills
As I’ve been saying on the Twitterverse, both the Steelers and Chiefs are due for another loss. Could their Washington loss be a wake up call? Absolutely. But the Bills are looking good and have home field advantage.
MONDAY
Baltimore @ Cleveland 8:15 p.m. ET
Jake: Ravens
Cue Sam with the Baker Mayfield cycle take:
Sam: Ravens
This Ravens team competed with the Steelers two weeks ago without Lamar. Last week after a week off Lamar had a STRONG game (even though it was vs the cowboys). The Browns are feeling hot after their one quality win. Time for an “upset”. BONUS: The Ravens have a better record vs the Browns than any team has against any other team.
Johnny: Browns
It’s all about containing Lamar here for the Browns. If they do that and Baker is smart with the football the Browns will be one step closer to clinching their 1st playoff berth since 2002.