Written by Sam Gutkin
After far too long waiting, it's time to make a March Madness bracket. Picking a bracket is one of the most fun activities in all of sports fandom, but it also may be the hardest. This year adds additional challenges, due to the Covid-19 pandemic. First and foremost, most teams have played little to no out-of-conference games, which makes comparison from conference to conference very difficult. There is also the risk of any player dropping to Covid at any time, which could cause a team to miss important practice opportunities or withdraw from the tournament altogether.
Thankfully, these challenges pose no threat to a bracket expert like me, and I'm here to help with all of the intel you need to win your bracket pool (unless you're in my bracket pool, in which case please stop reading here).
Before we break down each region, we have to discuss my methodology. I use three main criteria to pick my tournament winners. Firstly, I use the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), which has been remarkably accurate at predicting winners since the stat was invented in 2007. Since then every champion but two (Uconn 2014 and Uconn 2011) have finished in the top three in BPI. Secondly, I use each team's stats for fouling, free-throw shooting, and rebounding, as these three stats have the biggest impact on tournament performance. Teams that stay away from foul trouble, win the battle on the boards, and make their foul shots, win games in March. Finally, I use Quad 1 record, which simply shows how well each team does in difficult games. Obviously, I look into other stats, because it would be foolish not to, but those three make up the bulk of my analysis.
WEST
Let's get this out of the way first, Gonzaga will come out of the West region. The Zags have been dominant all year, boasting one of the best players in the nation at just about every position, as well as one of the best coaches. Their reputation as "tournament chokers" is unwarranted, as this team was in the Elite Eight last time March Madness was held, and they played in the 2017 national title game. They also don't deserve their reputation as playing an "easy schedule". The Bulldogs beat Kansas (3 seed), West Virginia (3 seed), Iowa (2 seed), Virginia (4 seed), and BYU (6 seed) three times. Not only are they undefeated, but they have only played one game with a single-digit margin of victory all year. They are legitimately great and if you pick them to exit early, get ready to watch Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi, and Mark Few dance all over your burning bracket.
Now time for everybody's favorite, what upsets do I see in this section of the bracket? Not many. I see #6 USC beating #3 Kansas in the second round, due to the questionable Covid status of Kansas stars David McCormack and Jalen Wilson. This in combination with USC's impressive BPI rank of 16, which shows they may be under seeded at 6, as well as their success rebounding and staying out of foul trouble, makes them a tournament threat.
Everything else in this region I see going according to seed. VCU over Oregon is a relatively common upset to pick, but Oregon is a veteran lead team, who outplays VCU in Rebounding, Three-Point Shooting, Foul Aversion, and Quad 1 winning percentage. Two semi-popular upsets are to take Virginia and/or Creighton to lose their first-round matchups. Virginia will have their work cut out for them playing a tournament game after a week or not practicing due to Covid, but they are the strongest 4 seed in the whole tournament and are the reigning champs, they'll figure out a way to get past Ohio. Creighton is being picked against out of panic after they got blown out in the Big East Championship game, but I assure you that was a blip in the radar vs a strong Georgetown team, and Creighton is a squad that's won quality games all year will beat UC Santa Barbara.
Lastly, the 8-9 game, everybody's favorite tossup. As always it could go either way and either team will lose to Gonzaga, but I give this game to Missouri because of the recent positive Covid test from Oklahoma's second-leading scorer, De'Vion Harmon. It was a close game I originally intended on giving to OU, but the Covid situation changed everything.
EAST
Michigan may get overlooked by some, after losing three of their last five games, but all three of those losses came to tournament teams (Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State), two of which being top-tier tournament teams. The Wolverines are very strong all around, and especially excels at all three major stats I look at, finding themselves in the top 25 for each. Even if they weren't a great team, they'd still be my Final Four pick out of this region, as the selection committee did them plenty of favors in terms of the teams they will have to face on the way.
I expect more upsets in the East region than any other by far. First off, Georgetown over Colorado. This is probably the most popular upset of the season, everyone seems to be picking it. Colorado got a rough draw, as they're an excellent statistical team who would beat any other 12 in the field, but Georgetown is just as good statistically, despite playing a far harder schedule, and is fresh off their biggest win of the season (73-48 beating of Creighton). Georgetown will also win their second-round matchup, vs Florida State, who is honestly a worse team than Colorado. Florida State has a fouling problem and allows more points per game vs a comparably difficult schedule. If we've established that Georgetown beats Colorado, the Seminoles should be another W.
Originally I had expected Michigan State to win their play in-game and beat BYU, but I was wrong and UCLA came out of that game (my March magic only works during the real tournament). Michigan State over BYU was a pick I was very confident in, largely because of the strength the Trojans had shown as of late (wins over Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan). I'm sticking to my guns in this 6-11 showdown and saying UCLA will take down BYU. They clearly have what it takes if they beat MSU, who was going to beat BYU.
The final upset of the East is Connecticut winning their second-round game vs Alabama. Alabama is FAR from a bad team, but UConn is the single most under-seeded team in this tournament by BPI (should be a 4 seed) and Alabama is the worst 2 seed by BPI (should probably be a 3). That establishes that this should be a more competitive game than you would expect of a 2-7 matchup, but what makes me give the edge to UConn is that the Huskies shine in all the right parts of the game to thrive in March (rebounding and foul shooting specifically) where 'Bama does not. I will use this game as an opportunity to show off my unrivaled humility and say this is the pick I am least confident in, throughout the whole bracket. This was a tough game to call and I'm only about 70% sure of the outcome, as opposed to my normal 100%.
Last but not least, the ol' 8-9. LSU has a high-powered offense but allows more points than anybody else in the tournament. Granted this is largely to do with their difficult schedule, but I still can't pick a team that struggles that much on the defensive side of the ball. The saying "defense wins championships" is especially true in college basketball and I cant pick LSU for that reason.
MIDWEST
It's pretty clear that the Big Ten is the best conference in basketball this year. Nine Big Ten teams made the big dance, more than any other conference, and Big Ten schools make up half of the 1 and 2 seeds. Following this logic, the team that wins the Big Ten title must be pretty good right? Absolutely right. Illinois is a buzzsaw. Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are two of the most dominant players in the country, and the rest of the roster aren't slouches either. The Fighting Illini have managed to score a lot of points per game (81.1) while allowing fairly few points per game (68.6), against a difficult Big Ten schedule (37th hardest schedule in the country). While that sounds like a silly oversimplification, that's what the sport is. Score points without allowing points. If you do that vs good teams, you're a good team. From the free-throw line, they leave a lot to be desired, but in the paint, they are as good as anybody, and that's more than enough to make it to the Final Four.
The only first-round upset I have picked in this bracket is Rutgers over Clemson, but this pick comes with a warning that I am biased and I can't recommend you pick this game in your bracket. Rutgers is a very talented team that has beat teams like Illinois and Purdue earlier in the season but has also lost to teams like Nebraska. The main causes of all of this are Ron Harper Jr's three-point struggles the second half of the year and Myles Johnson's constant foul issues. With these resolved Rutgers could make a serious run in the tournament, but I wouldn't bet on it.
The other upsets I have are one seed upsets, #5 Tennessee over #4 Oklahoma State, and #3 West Virginia over #2 Houston. Oklahoma State obviously has great capabilities and may have the best player in the league in Cade Cunningham, which can all be seen in their win over Baylor, but they don't perform well enough statistically, and they allow far too many points per game to beat a team like Tennessee who is 12 in the country in BPI. Houston thrives in BPI, coming in third overall, which is why I think the people who picked them to lose the first weekend are foolish. The second weekend is a different story though. Houston has played an easy schedule (only three Quad 1 games) and their opponent West Virginia has had the toughest schedule of any team in the tournament. Although WVU doesn't full-court press as often as they used to, they still can get turnovers at an impressive clip and they have the press to go to when they need it. The mountaineers play like a true hard nose tournament team that gets steals while avoiding fouls, and that will carry them to the Elite Eight.
For this bracket's 8-9 matchup, the easy choice is Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers are lead by Cameron Krutwig and Lucas Williamson, who were both on the team for their miraculous Final Four run in 2018, and this experience is reflected by their poise in avoiding fouls, their strong free-throw shooting, and high BPI ranking (highest of any 8 seed). Loyola Chicago is also 10 in the NET rankings, whereas Georgia Tech is 34.
SOUTH
The South bracket like every bracket is the home of a very powerful Big Ten team, and similar to the Midwest and East, that team will emerge into the Final Four. I of course am talking about Ohio State. The Buckeyes have as much Quad 1 experience as anybody and they make their foul shots with great consistency, which will be very important down the stretch of what will be a very close Elite Eight matchup vs Baylor, who nets only 69% of their free throws. Ohio State is playing their best basketball down the stretch, fresh-off wins vs Michigan and Purdue, as well as a close overtime loss vs Illinois. The teams they will have to beat to get to Baylor won't pose any serious threat and will allow a solid run-up for OSU to heat up even more, just enough to propel themselves over the 1 seed and into a rematch vs Illinois.
First-round upsets in this bracket include Colgate over Arkansas and Virginia Tech over Florida. Colgate is probably the boldest upset of my whole bracket, and my reasoning for it is three-pronged. Firstly, Colgate doesn't really have any weak points. They don't foul, they make their shots, they win the battle in the paint, they make 38% of their threes and 49% of their field goals, they don't allow many points, and they score more than anybody but Gonzaga. Secondly, they play a surprisingly hard schedule. They don't play the level of competition Arkansas does, but they are ranked 100th nationally in strength of schedule, which is tougher than any other 14 seed and most of the 13's. With that respectable schedule, they have only lost once all year, a two point loss to Army. Finally, the NET ranking puts Colgate ABOVE Arkansas and although the BPI rankings don't quite put Colgate into the Razorbacks ballpark, it does put them at 44, which is higher than any other 12,13,14,15, or 16 in the tournament as well as seven of the ten 10-11 seeds. If a low seed is going to make noise in this bracket, the statistics say it'll be Colgate, and Arkansas is just in their way. Virginia Tech over Florida is a much safer pick, and one with far simpler reasoning. Virginia Tech is undefeated vs the top 25 this year (4-0), BPI puts them neck and neck against Florida, Virginia Tech is stronger defensively, and one of Florida's strong points is foul shooting, which matches up poorly with VT's strength of not fouling.
The upset I didn't pick was Winthrop over Villanova. Yes Collin Gillespie won't play and yes that is a huge loss for the team, but Nova was underrated to begin with. With a fully healthy team, I would say they could contend with Baylor, and without him, I still have no problem picking them to win the first-round matchup vs Winthrop, who is the tournament's weakest 12. In the second round Villanova will fall to Purdue, even though with Gillespie they would win easily.
The 8-9 matchup between North Caroline and Wisconsin should be close as per usual, but I expect the Badgers to best the Tar Heals. Like most Big Ten teams (due to the grueling difficulty of schedule) Wisconsin has had struggled with consistency, but its important to remember that this isn't one of the UNC teams you usually see at the top of your bracket, this is a team in a down year from a conference that largely had a down year. North Carolina is the best rebounding team in the country which could be concerning, but part of Wisconsin's rebound struggle has been caused by the fact that they've played in a conference that where many teams have big men as their best player (Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn, Myles Johnson, etc) and this experience will help them be competitive on the boards with UNC. The Tar Heels are also one of the worst foul shooting teams in the tournament which will be a serious hindrance in a close competition like this one.
FINAL FOUR
The stage has been set and we have our Final Four! Gonzaga from the West, Michigan from the East, Illinois from the Midwest, and Ohio State from the South.
First up, Michigan vs Gonzaga. This is the game I'm most excited to watch throughout the whole field and it will be an amazing showdown between the two teams I think are the best. I expect the winner to win the national title. First, to get this out of the way, they have played relatively comparable strengths of schedule, despite what you may think. Michigan is 20th in strength of schedule, as they played in a great conference but didn't have to face one of the best teams (themselves) and Gonzaga is 34th in strength of schedule, due to their impressive out-of-conference matchups earlier this year. Neither of these teams have significant weaknesses either. They both excel in every part of the game, both the tournament-specific stats (fouling, free throws, rebounding) as well as more traditional stats (field goal percentage, points per game, points allowed per game). In the end though, Gonzaga is going to do what they did all year. They're going to make a high percentage of their shots, they're going to get rebounds on the ones they miss, they're going to show why they're #1 overall in the BPI, NET, and AP rankings, and they're going to show why they're 8-0 in Quad One games this year (Michigan is 8-6). If Michigan forward Isaiah Livers hasn't returned from injury at by then, expect this game to be much easier for Gonzaga.
Next, Illinois vs Ohio State. These two teams have already played each other three times this year, and Illinois is 2-1. Expect them to become 3-1 after this competition. Up against essentially the same strength of schedule (the same conference in a season with limited out-of-conference play) Illinois has been able to score more points than Ohio State while allowing fewer points. They also are able to completely dominate the boards while still giving out fewer fouls than the Buckeyes. There won't be a blowout between teams this good, but it won't be too close.
In the championship game, Gonzaga will do what they've done all year, and will close out the first undefeated season since 1976. The Zags have their own big man Drew Timme, who got 9 rebounds in his matchup vs Luka Garza, to take care of Kofi Cockburn, and the trio of Suggs, Ayayi, and Kispert will be more than enough to match the scoring of Ayo Dosunmu. Illinois is also out of the BPI range to win the national title, coming in at fourth in the country, where no team worse than a three has ever won (since the stat started in 2007, other than Uconn). Even threes are rare with only one three ever winning and six of the last 12 champions being ranked first in BPI. Finally, Illinois doesn't have a single contributor who has played in a March Madness game, where Gonzaga's roster predominantly features upperclassmen who have been in situations like this before. Of course, this will be a competitive game, but Gonzaga is the clear best team in the country this season and it's about time Mark Few got his ring.
Regardless of outcome, it'll be amazing to watch sports greatest spectacle, March Madness, take place again. The 64 (play-in games don't count, theres 64, not 68, grow up) best teams in the country are about to take the stage to see who's truly the greatest, and for people who aren't all-knowing like I am, there will certainly be some surprises. Even for those of us who have perfect brackets, it'll still be an awesome few weeks of sports and I would like to take this opportunity before it starts to congratulate you, the Ridin' Pine reader, on winning your bracket pool, since you now have all the secrets.