Written by, Jake Hatch
Dear Tampa,
After an illustrious 20 year career with the Patriots that saw Tom Brady win 6 Super Bowls, 9 conference championships, and break numerous records both regular season and postseason, Tom Brady did the unthinkable and officially decided to leave Foxboro behind. Signing a 2 year 50 million dollar contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brady will take the spot of former Bucs QB Jameis Winston who is officially a free agent. There has been much speculation about whether Brady's fractured relationship with longtime coach Bill Belichick led to the departure of Brady. I'm sure you've heard enough about that from every sports talk show out there given that there's not much else to talk about right now: so I'll save the speculation. Instead, I'd like to take the time to address a question that everyone across the league is asking: how on earth can it be worth it to pay a 43 year old quarterback 50 million dollars?
First of all, I want to preface this by saying that the move is absolutely worth it. Beyond Brady's on-field performance, the move is an unquestionable positive for the organization from a business standpoint. After having the third lowest attendance, second lowest percentage of seats filled per game in the league last year, and only one winning season in the last decade, it is safe to say that Bucs fans were tired of watching a team with the lowest winning percentage of all time. This outlook all changed though after the news broke that Brady would be joining the Bucs (before he even signed a contract) as by that night there were 6,665+ people in line to purchase season tickets on Ticketmaster's website. Not only will the filled up seats likely lead to more added revenue than Brady's entire 50 million dollar contract, but his presence on the team will also attract more high-caliber players to the organization. Following the signing, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that “an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there". This excitement has only been echoed by many current Bucs players as well, including high-profile players such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Shaquil Barrett. Safe to say it's the start of building a culture.
The more important question though is: what are the Buccaneers getting on the field out of Tom Brady? Certainly not Jameis Winston. In fact outside of a quarterback like Alex Smith, I don't think the Bucs could have gotten a player who is less similar to Winston. What do Brady and Winston have in common? They're both painstakingly slow. Onto the differences. Winston is a reckless gunslinger with a cannon for an arm, who occasionally makes jaw-dropping highlight reel throws, but struggles to muster any ounce of consistency. He is truly one of the worst decision-makers the quarterback position has ever seen. To add insult to injury, his sloppy throwing mechanics lead him to constantly overthrow receivers near and far. This blend of poor mechanics, inaccuracy, and boneheaded decision-making often lead to him throwing interceptions so ugly that the closest player to the intercepting player will often be another defensive player. I've watched plenty of throws made by Winston where I genuinely have no idea who he was trying to throw to. I could go on and on—and probably will in another article—about how much I can't stand watching Jameis play quarterback, but the important takeaway is that he is the anti-Brady.
Back to Brady. Tom Brady is a tape-grinding, surgical decision-maker who rarely throws the ball into low-percentage windows. Pre-snap, Brady regularly identifies the base coverage of the defense, picks up any blitzers creeping towards the line, and subsequently audibles his pass-protection and receiver's routes at the lines in order to optimize the efficiency of the play. Brady's perfect throwing mechanics not only allow him to throw the ball accurately with velocity, but they allow him to release the ball quickly with a consistent perfect spiral. Brady's biggest strength has always been his ability to dissect defenses and hit his receivers in 2 seconds or under after the snap, but is also fantastic at making adjustments post-snap, manipulating safety movement with his eyes, stepping up in the pocket to avoid pass-rushers, and fitting balls into tight windows.
What are Tom's weaknesses? Before I get into them, I want to address the notion that Brady could never throw the ball deep, because it is simply untrue. Brady routinely hit pass-catchers like Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski—and Deion Branch to a lesser extent—down the field, and once narrowly missed Randy Moss with a 75 yard bomb that he uncorked at the end of Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants. Does he still have a cannon at this age? No, but he still has above average arm strength. Brady's current weaknesses are as follows. He struggles to throw the ball deep consistently, but he is at the very least an average deep-throwing quarterback. He also tends to float or sail throws on out-breaking routes to the sidelines, but no more than the average quarterback. While I think this is a bit of a sign of his age, he also played the whole 2019-20 season with a rumored Tennis Elbow, which causes pain with every throw and depletes arm strength significantly. From a decision-making standpoint, Brady rarely throws into the wrong coverage, instead many of his interceptions come from the safeties or linebackers being cognizant of Brady's likely pre-snap read and cheating towards the holes of their zone coverage, and hopping in front of an open receiver. This can happen to any great quarterback.
The only legitimate concern that I have about Brady at this age is that he struggled to evade pass-rushers in the pocket like he did in the past, and often threw the ball away the minute the pocket collapsed. This makes it extremely difficult for receivers to develop their routes. The likely reason for this is that he simply had no trust in his receiving core last year, and didn't expect them to create separation consistently: which he honestly was correct about. Julian Edelman led the league in drops. Philip Dorsett couldn't do anything except run fast in a straight-line. Mohammed Sanu lacked any speed or quickness to create any cushion for himself and couldn't even catch the ball consistently. UDFA Jakobi Meyers did a decent job of shaking defenders but couldn't catch the ball either. Tight ends Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson were non-factors. The worst offender of all though was first-round pick N'Keal Harry, whose brick-like feet allowed him to run some of the worst routes I've ever seen from an NFL receiver, let alone a first-rounder. Not exactly a recipe for success.
This will all change on the Buccaneers. The Bucs arguably have the best receiving cores in the NFL. Mike Evans has had 6 straight 1,000 yard seasons since coming into the league, and can catch any ball over any defensive back. Chris Godwin is one of the faster true slot receivers in the NFL sporting a 4.42 40 yard dash, runs solid routes, has good hands and fantastic ability to withstand contact when defenders are closing in during and after the catch. OJ Howard is one of the most talented tight ends in the league who just needs to be more consistent. Even Cameron Brate is better than any tight end Brady had last year. Additionally, the Bucs have a solid offensive line that has excellent interior protection which will help Brady combat his biggest weakness: interior pressure.
An interesting thing to watch will be the relationship between Tom and well-respected "quarterback-whisperer" coach Bruce Arians's. While Arians's philosophy of having a QB take almost all snaps out of the shotgun, hold onto the ball for 5+ seconds, allow receivers to stretch the field, and take risks by airing the ball out clashes with Brady's cerebral, conservative but consistent brand of football, I think they will coexist just fine. Brady has plenty of ability to improvise, and Arians has plenty of ability to scheme an effective offense. Arians is a very good coach, and a very good coach can adapt to the skill-set of his quarterback. While quarterbacks like Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger or Jameis Winston might not be very similar to Brady, many forget that Bruce Arians coached Peyton Manning through his first few years in the NFL.
Even if the offense wasn't necessarily built for Brady, I actually think it is a fantastic fit for him. Every football fan knows that Brady loves throwing to slot receivers, and Chris Godwin is more talented than any slot receiver Brady has had: Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Troy Brown to name a few. Godwin caught 86 balls for 1,333 yards and 9 TDs last year, and he could catch for more this year. Former first-round pick OJ Howard has shown brief flashes of being a Gronk caliber tight end, and Cameron Brate will function as a solid possession tight end as well. The X-Factor in the receiving-core though is star-receiver Mike Evans. While he isn't known for his separation or jaw-dropping route-running ability, he gets more separation that any receiver Brady had last year (outside of Edelman), has some of the best hands and in-air body control in the NFL, and is perhaps the best contested catcher in the league. I expect Mike Evans to excel catching back shoulder passes from Brady just like the passes that Brady often threw to Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski. Do I know if the Bucs receivers will be able to pick up the difficult option-route heavy offense that Brady will help install? No, but they're talented enough that they'll be a good unit even if there are some growing pains. What I do know though, is that Brady's infectious energy, work ethic, and passion will elevate the preparation and performance of his teammates, and with the talent that they have on the offense, it will be a fun team to watch.
I believe the offense will finish as a top 5 unit, but what about the defense? They allowed the fourth most points in the league last year, but that was in large part a result of Jameis Winston leaving them with a short field after 30 interceptions. They finished last year allowing the 14th fewest yards in the league and I expect them to build on that. Their pass-rush consisting of 2019 sack-champion Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul was phenomenal last year and their linebacking core of Lavonte David and early first-round pick Devin White is superb as well. Vita Vea and newly re-signed Ndamukong Suh make up a solid defensive line, and their only somewhat-substantial loss to free agency on defense is Carl Nassib. Their secondary is well-below average, but it can certainly be addressed in the draft and in free agency to at least become an adequate unit. A top-10 finish out of this highly athletic defense certainly would not surprise me.
Will the Bucs win the Super Bowl? I don't know. The defense still has holes, and almost every player on the team has no playoff experience. What I do know is that Tom Brady will have a better year than last year. In fact, I think he has a real chance to flirt with 5,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, less than 10 interceptions and win his fourth NFL MVP. Hot take? Sure, but if anyone can do it at 43 years old, it's the GOAT. As a fan who has watched Tom Brady my whole life, you're getting more than a football player. You're getting a superhero. Brady will change the entire football culture in Tampa just like he did in New England, and will be the hero of thousands of kids in Tampa Bay. Just like he was for me.
Tampa, look after him for us.
-Jake Hatch
Dear Tampa,
After an illustrious 20 year career with the Patriots that saw Tom Brady win 6 Super Bowls, 9 conference championships, and break numerous records both regular season and postseason, Tom Brady did the unthinkable and officially decided to leave Foxboro behind. Signing a 2 year 50 million dollar contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brady will take the spot of former Bucs QB Jameis Winston who is officially a free agent. There has been much speculation about whether Brady's fractured relationship with longtime coach Bill Belichick led to the departure of Brady. I'm sure you've heard enough about that from every sports talk show out there given that there's not much else to talk about right now: so I'll save the speculation. Instead, I'd like to take the time to address a question that everyone across the league is asking: how on earth can it be worth it to pay a 43 year old quarterback 50 million dollars?
First of all, I want to preface this by saying that the move is absolutely worth it. Beyond Brady's on-field performance, the move is an unquestionable positive for the organization from a business standpoint. After having the third lowest attendance, second lowest percentage of seats filled per game in the league last year, and only one winning season in the last decade, it is safe to say that Bucs fans were tired of watching a team with the lowest winning percentage of all time. This outlook all changed though after the news broke that Brady would be joining the Bucs (before he even signed a contract) as by that night there were 6,665+ people in line to purchase season tickets on Ticketmaster's website. Not only will the filled up seats likely lead to more added revenue than Brady's entire 50 million dollar contract, but his presence on the team will also attract more high-caliber players to the organization. Following the signing, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that “an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there". This excitement has only been echoed by many current Bucs players as well, including high-profile players such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Shaquil Barrett. Safe to say it's the start of building a culture.
The more important question though is: what are the Buccaneers getting on the field out of Tom Brady? Certainly not Jameis Winston. In fact outside of a quarterback like Alex Smith, I don't think the Bucs could have gotten a player who is less similar to Winston. What do Brady and Winston have in common? They're both painstakingly slow. Onto the differences. Winston is a reckless gunslinger with a cannon for an arm, who occasionally makes jaw-dropping highlight reel throws, but struggles to muster any ounce of consistency. He is truly one of the worst decision-makers the quarterback position has ever seen. To add insult to injury, his sloppy throwing mechanics lead him to constantly overthrow receivers near and far. This blend of poor mechanics, inaccuracy, and boneheaded decision-making often lead to him throwing interceptions so ugly that the closest player to the intercepting player will often be another defensive player. I've watched plenty of throws made by Winston where I genuinely have no idea who he was trying to throw to. I could go on and on—and probably will in another article—about how much I can't stand watching Jameis play quarterback, but the important takeaway is that he is the anti-Brady.
Back to Brady. Tom Brady is a tape-grinding, surgical decision-maker who rarely throws the ball into low-percentage windows. Pre-snap, Brady regularly identifies the base coverage of the defense, picks up any blitzers creeping towards the line, and subsequently audibles his pass-protection and receiver's routes at the lines in order to optimize the efficiency of the play. Brady's perfect throwing mechanics not only allow him to throw the ball accurately with velocity, but they allow him to release the ball quickly with a consistent perfect spiral. Brady's biggest strength has always been his ability to dissect defenses and hit his receivers in 2 seconds or under after the snap, but is also fantastic at making adjustments post-snap, manipulating safety movement with his eyes, stepping up in the pocket to avoid pass-rushers, and fitting balls into tight windows.
What are Tom's weaknesses? Before I get into them, I want to address the notion that Brady could never throw the ball deep, because it is simply untrue. Brady routinely hit pass-catchers like Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski—and Deion Branch to a lesser extent—down the field, and once narrowly missed Randy Moss with a 75 yard bomb that he uncorked at the end of Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants. Does he still have a cannon at this age? No, but he still has above average arm strength. Brady's current weaknesses are as follows. He struggles to throw the ball deep consistently, but he is at the very least an average deep-throwing quarterback. He also tends to float or sail throws on out-breaking routes to the sidelines, but no more than the average quarterback. While I think this is a bit of a sign of his age, he also played the whole 2019-20 season with a rumored Tennis Elbow, which causes pain with every throw and depletes arm strength significantly. From a decision-making standpoint, Brady rarely throws into the wrong coverage, instead many of his interceptions come from the safeties or linebackers being cognizant of Brady's likely pre-snap read and cheating towards the holes of their zone coverage, and hopping in front of an open receiver. This can happen to any great quarterback.
The only legitimate concern that I have about Brady at this age is that he struggled to evade pass-rushers in the pocket like he did in the past, and often threw the ball away the minute the pocket collapsed. This makes it extremely difficult for receivers to develop their routes. The likely reason for this is that he simply had no trust in his receiving core last year, and didn't expect them to create separation consistently: which he honestly was correct about. Julian Edelman led the league in drops. Philip Dorsett couldn't do anything except run fast in a straight-line. Mohammed Sanu lacked any speed or quickness to create any cushion for himself and couldn't even catch the ball consistently. UDFA Jakobi Meyers did a decent job of shaking defenders but couldn't catch the ball either. Tight ends Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson were non-factors. The worst offender of all though was first-round pick N'Keal Harry, whose brick-like feet allowed him to run some of the worst routes I've ever seen from an NFL receiver, let alone a first-rounder. Not exactly a recipe for success.
This will all change on the Buccaneers. The Bucs arguably have the best receiving cores in the NFL. Mike Evans has had 6 straight 1,000 yard seasons since coming into the league, and can catch any ball over any defensive back. Chris Godwin is one of the faster true slot receivers in the NFL sporting a 4.42 40 yard dash, runs solid routes, has good hands and fantastic ability to withstand contact when defenders are closing in during and after the catch. OJ Howard is one of the most talented tight ends in the league who just needs to be more consistent. Even Cameron Brate is better than any tight end Brady had last year. Additionally, the Bucs have a solid offensive line that has excellent interior protection which will help Brady combat his biggest weakness: interior pressure.
An interesting thing to watch will be the relationship between Tom and well-respected "quarterback-whisperer" coach Bruce Arians's. While Arians's philosophy of having a QB take almost all snaps out of the shotgun, hold onto the ball for 5+ seconds, allow receivers to stretch the field, and take risks by airing the ball out clashes with Brady's cerebral, conservative but consistent brand of football, I think they will coexist just fine. Brady has plenty of ability to improvise, and Arians has plenty of ability to scheme an effective offense. Arians is a very good coach, and a very good coach can adapt to the skill-set of his quarterback. While quarterbacks like Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger or Jameis Winston might not be very similar to Brady, many forget that Bruce Arians coached Peyton Manning through his first few years in the NFL.
Even if the offense wasn't necessarily built for Brady, I actually think it is a fantastic fit for him. Every football fan knows that Brady loves throwing to slot receivers, and Chris Godwin is more talented than any slot receiver Brady has had: Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Troy Brown to name a few. Godwin caught 86 balls for 1,333 yards and 9 TDs last year, and he could catch for more this year. Former first-round pick OJ Howard has shown brief flashes of being a Gronk caliber tight end, and Cameron Brate will function as a solid possession tight end as well. The X-Factor in the receiving-core though is star-receiver Mike Evans. While he isn't known for his separation or jaw-dropping route-running ability, he gets more separation that any receiver Brady had last year (outside of Edelman), has some of the best hands and in-air body control in the NFL, and is perhaps the best contested catcher in the league. I expect Mike Evans to excel catching back shoulder passes from Brady just like the passes that Brady often threw to Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski. Do I know if the Bucs receivers will be able to pick up the difficult option-route heavy offense that Brady will help install? No, but they're talented enough that they'll be a good unit even if there are some growing pains. What I do know though, is that Brady's infectious energy, work ethic, and passion will elevate the preparation and performance of his teammates, and with the talent that they have on the offense, it will be a fun team to watch.
I believe the offense will finish as a top 5 unit, but what about the defense? They allowed the fourth most points in the league last year, but that was in large part a result of Jameis Winston leaving them with a short field after 30 interceptions. They finished last year allowing the 14th fewest yards in the league and I expect them to build on that. Their pass-rush consisting of 2019 sack-champion Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul was phenomenal last year and their linebacking core of Lavonte David and early first-round pick Devin White is superb as well. Vita Vea and newly re-signed Ndamukong Suh make up a solid defensive line, and their only somewhat-substantial loss to free agency on defense is Carl Nassib. Their secondary is well-below average, but it can certainly be addressed in the draft and in free agency to at least become an adequate unit. A top-10 finish out of this highly athletic defense certainly would not surprise me.
Will the Bucs win the Super Bowl? I don't know. The defense still has holes, and almost every player on the team has no playoff experience. What I do know is that Tom Brady will have a better year than last year. In fact, I think he has a real chance to flirt with 5,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, less than 10 interceptions and win his fourth NFL MVP. Hot take? Sure, but if anyone can do it at 43 years old, it's the GOAT. As a fan who has watched Tom Brady my whole life, you're getting more than a football player. You're getting a superhero. Brady will change the entire football culture in Tampa just like he did in New England, and will be the hero of thousands of kids in Tampa Bay. Just like he was for me.
Tampa, look after him for us.
-Jake Hatch