37 years ago today, on June 15th 1983, the New York Mets traded pitchers Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey to the Saint Louis Cardinals. In return, the Mets received 29-year-old former MVP first baseman Keith Hernandez. This is arguably the greatest trade the Mets have ever made, as Allen and Ownbey went on to be average at best, while Hernandez ended up being one of the most important players in franchise history.
Keith Hernandez played for the Mets between 1983 and 1989. Even though that time frame is fairly short in comparison to other franchise greats such as Tom Seaver or David Wright, in those seven seasons he earned the right to be considered among them. Right away in '83, he had what was, at the time, tied for the best On Base Percentage season in Mets history. Two years later in 1986, he led the Mets to their second World Series title. The next season he became the first Met to ever be named a captain, with only three more earning the title since. After the 1989 season, when his career had already been slowed down by injuries, he signed with the Cleveland Indians for what would be his final season. Hernandez's importance to the Mets didn't end with his retirement though, not even close.
In 1998 he would join the Mets broadcast booth, where he has stayed since. For Mets fans of my generation, a Mets game without Keith's voice seems almost unimaginable. He would later be joined by Gary Cohen and former teammate Ron Darling to form one of the best broadcast teams in baseball. Keith had been on TV before the broadcast booth though, appearing in a 1992 episode of Seinfeld, which is still one of the most famous episodes of the legendary sitcom.
In 1997 Hernandez was rightfully inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame, the second member of the '86 squad to earn the honor. Ten years later in 2007, the American Mustache Institute ranked his famous ‘stache to be the “Top Sports Mustache ever ”. Undoubtedly these honors are well deserved, but I would argue that what Hernandez truly deserves is an all-expenses-paid, one way, trip to Cooperstown.
The Opinion that Keith Hernandez should be a Hall of Famer is not an unpopular one, especially among Mets fans, but sadly the Baseball Writers Association of America does not agree. Hernandez never received more than 11% of the vote, far from the 75% required for induction, and in 2004 he received lower than 5%, causing him to fall off the ballot. Thankfully, the Modern Baseball Committee will have another chance to elect Hernandez in 2022, and if they know what they're doing, he'll far exceed 75%. But we can't just expect them to know his worth on their own, the Hall of Fame voters have messed up too many times to have that trust, therefore we must try to educate them.
So what makes Hernandez such a sure-fire Hall of Famer? A great place to start is WAR. Many people question WAR (some even wondering "What is it good for"), but Wins Above Replacement is a solid stat to get an overall view of a player's body of work, before diving deeper. Keith Hernandez earned a career WAR of 60.3. 50 is generally considered the minimum WAR for Hall of Fame consideration, with the average for Hall of Fame hitter's being 69. Even though Hernandez is slightly below the Hall of Fame average, he still has a greater WAR than 75 hitters in Cooperstown, 8 of whom also played the offense heavy position of first base. Of the few first basemen with a higher WAR than Hernandez who also aren't in the Hall of Fame, they all either were steroid users, are still active players, or are Todd Helton (who is a special case due to Coors Field, but still may make it one year). Of first basemen, Keith Hernandez has the highest WAR, to be excluded from the Hall of Fame without explanation.
In terms of traditional stats, Hernandez's on-base percentage is higher than that of the average hall of fame batter, he hit an above-average amount of doubles, and he walked more. He finished in the top 5 for MVP voting 3 times, which gives him the same amount of top 5 finishes as fellow first baseman, Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, and more than Jim Thome or Willie McCovey. Hernandez also won 11 Gold Glove awards, more than any other first baseman, and 7th most of any position. Lastly, Hernandez is credited as the "all-time" leader in Game Winning RBIs, even though it was a stat that was only recorded from 1981 to 1989. Even though its FAR from a perfect stat, what it does do is show his clutch-ability compared to other players in the 80s.
For people who like advanced statistics, but want to hear about more than just WAR, we'll also look at OPS+, wRC+, and JAWS. OPS+ is On Base Plus Slugging +, which takes a hitters OPS and accounts for factors such as year and home field. While this stat isn't perfect for overall offensive production, as it doesn't factor in base running, it's great at determining just how productive a hitter was while standing in the box. Hernandez's 128 OPS+ ranks above a solid amount of Hall of Famers, including Ricky Henderson, Derek Jeter, and Johnny Bench. Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) is a similar stat, except it also factors in base-running and uses weighted On Base Average instead of OPS. In terms of wRC+, Hernandez (131) finds himself tied with Ken Griffey Jr. and ahead of Carl Yastrzemski, Roberto Clemente, Dave Winfield, and many more. JAWS is a stat that compares a player's WAR7 (peak WAR) to other players at the same position who are already enshrined in Cooperstown. For a first baseman, the average JAWS is 54.8. Hernandez comes in slightly below this at 50.8, meaning he would be a slightly below-average first baseman in the Hall, but that still puts him above the likes of Harmon Killebrew, Tony Perez, and George Sisler.
Finally, to address the elephant in the room, the most important piece of Hernandez's Hall of Fame candidacy, his defense. It's not a controversial statement to call Keith Hernandez the best defensive first baseman of all time. Hernandez had a career Defensive WAR of 1.3, which sounds incredibly low until you account for the fact that with the positional adjustments, its almost impossible to have a positive DWAR as a first baseman. Of all 21 first basemen who have won 3+ gold gloves, none of them have a positive DWAR (except Hernandez), with Don Mattingly's sitting at -6.2 and Todd Helton at -5. Only two first basemen who have played as many games as Hernandez have a higher career DWAR, and they are both Hall of Famers who played their entire career in the 1800s (Cap Anson and Roger Connor).
After all of this, you may be wondering why Keith Hernandez hasn't made the Hall yet. The primary reason is outdated notions about what a first baseman must be. During the time that Hernandez was on the Hall of Fame ballot (1996-2004) first basemen like Mark McGwire were hitting home runs at record paces and shaping what it meant to play the position. Even though Hernandez was just as offensively productive as many first basemen in the Hall of Fame, and more defensively productive than just about any first baseman ever, he only hit 162 home runs, which disqualified him. It's now 2020 and even though many first basemen still fit the McGwire archetype (like Pete Alonso), we now have the advanced states to show that that isn't the only way to play the position effectively.
To conclude, Keith Hernandez as a hitter, is a fit for Cooperstown, in just about every way, and he also is the best to ever play his position defensively. For those reasons he is a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame and hopefully by 2022 the Modern Baseball Committee will realize that. In the meantime, we can still take solace in rewatching his Seinfeld episode, listening to him call Mets games, and looking at pictures of his cat on Twitter.
Read more Mets Monday HERE
Don't forget you can follow us on Twitter, Instagram, check out our YouTube Playlist, or like us on Facebook!
You can find Sam on social media @Sguts41