Raymond James Stadium, the site of Super Bowl 55 (Courtesy SportingNews.Com)
Written by Sam Gutkin
This Sunday, February 7th, the 55th Super Bowl will be played. The setting is Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay Florida, which will be the arena's third big game in its short 23-year history. The location of the game isn't particularly notable in and of itself, 7 of the last 21 Super Bowls have been in the state of Florida, but it becomes notable when you account for the teams playing. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in this February matchup vs the Kansas City Chiefs, will be the first team to ever play a super bowl in their home stadium. It was a pre-determined "Neutral site" of course, but the Buccaneers just so happened to win their first NFC title since 2002 in the year their home park was slated to be the Super Bowl host.
It can be argued this isn't really the first home-field advantage in a Super Bowl, as the 1985 San Francisco 49ers played Super Bowl 19 (a game that they won) in Stanford Stadium, a mere 30 miles away from their home, but this year is undeniably the first TRUE home-field advantage.
The elephant in the room though, as always, is the Corona Virus.
This season, due to stadiums often being empty or almost empty, home-field advantage has been non-existent. This was the first season in NFL History that home teams were below .500. The obvious reason for this is lack of fans, with 14 teams not allowing a single fan into their building and the most attended game drawing only 31,700 fans. Many factors play into "home field advantage", including familiarity with the facilities and not needing to travel, but the primary advantage is having 60,000-100,000 raucous fans on your side, and nobody has had that this year.
However, Tampa has been one of the teams that have allowed fans (average of 12,600 per game), and this Super Bowl will be played in front of 22,000 spectators, the most either team has played in front of by far. Presumably, the large majority of these fans will be cheering for the Buccaneers, and this will be the most hostile crowd Kansas City has faced since their last true away game in December of 2019.
The Chiefs have allowed fans into their stadium too (average of 13,100 per game), but neither team has been immune to the lack of statistical home-field advantage this season. Tampa and KC have had not only better records on the road, but both of their Quarterbacks have definitively better road stats than home stats.
The Buccaneers are a respectable 5-3 so at home so far this year, but they actually played better on the road, going 9-2 outside of their home city. One of their home losses came to the Chiefs in late November. Tom Brady's Passer Rating on the road this season is an incredible 113.2, while at home it sits at only 90.7. In contrast to this year, for his career, Tom Brady has been statistically better at home. It's not absurd to suggest that fans and a true home-field advantage help Tom Brady play better, and are at least one of the causes for this disparity.
The Chiefs have been dominant both at home and on the road, but they have just simply been better on the road. The Chiefs have not lost an away game this year and during those games, Patrick Mahomes completed 5% more of his passes, for around half a yard more per completion. Many of these road games though, came in stadiums without fans. In road games, with attendance over 10,000, their average margin of victory is 4.5, significantly closer than the 7.7 points they averaged in all other games. Granted these games were against strong teams, (Buccaneers and Dolphins), but in other road games vs playoff teams, they won by an average of 8.6.
To clarify my point, I'm NOT saying that the great Patrick Mahomes can't play well and win in front of a crowd. That would be an incredibly stupid point to make, he's been playing in front of crowds since he was 19. With that being said, this year's scoring has been down in games with crowds, and the Chiefs have been affected by that.
Will an extra 10,000 fans have an impact on the outcome? It's possible, especially with the Chief's tendency to fall behind early in big games, but it's also very possible it has no impact. Regardless of home-field advantage though, this game will be close. Both of these teams are great teams and in a matchup this strong it'll be a game of inches. Maybe those fans are that final inch the Buccaneers need to avenge their 3 point loss to Kansas City earlier this year.
What's for certain, is we're going to see history this Sunday, and it's likely we won't see something like this again for a very long time. Enjoy it.
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You can find Sam on social media @Sguts41