Ridin' Pine 2021 Week 1 Picks


 

‘Tis the season to be jolly! Happy Week 1!

All kickoff times are 1:00 p.m. EST unless otherwise noted.


THURSDAY

Dallas @ Tampa Bay 8:20 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Bucs

    • This is effectively the same exact Bucs team from last year. The same team that won a Super Bowl with a new QB without a real offseason due to the COVID pandemic. This offseason has been a lot more of a traditional one—especially for the Bucs and their 100% vaccination rate—and that’s another year for Tom Brady to get accustomed to his toybox of quality receivers. The Cowboys will be significantly better this year with Dak back, but it doesn’t matter how good they’ll be in this one, because the Bucs will be better.

  • Sam: Buccaneers

    • Dak Prescott’s return will work wonders for this Cowboys squad, and I expect them to run away with the NFC East, but they still shouldn't stand too much of a chance vs the reigning champs.

  • Johnny: Bucs

    • Tampa Bay has All 22 starters returning.  Will their season be perfect? Probably not, but they should take care of Dallas who probaby has a rusty QB and a depleted OLine


SUNDAY

Jacksonville @ Houston 

  • Jake: Jaguars

    • Trevor Lawrence struggled with everything I expected in the preseason—there were a lot of red flags in his college tape that called his anticipation, blitz pickups and his ability to read coverages into question—and that is exactly what he struggled with in the preseason. Lawrence also made some jaw-droppingly accurate throws, showed off his cannon of an arm, and showed off his mobility as well under constant duress, but it’s certainly not going to be a cakewalk this year with the Jaguars questionable personnel even with Lawrence’s elite raw tools. Nonetheless, this is a decimated Texans roster, and I think Lawrence comes out with the win against a weak defense regardless of how it ends up looking.

  • Sam: Jaguars

    • The week one toilet bowl. Trevor Lawrence is gonna have growing pains this season, as will Urban Meyer as a new NFL coach, but the Texans look pitiful this season and really don’t have much of anything to win with. I wouldn’t be shocked if veteran Houston stole this one from young Jacksonville, but as a whole the Jags will be better this year and I see them taking week one.

  • Johnny: Jaguars

    • I don’t think Jacksonville will win many games this year, but Houston will win even less, unless Watson returns under-center

Los Angeles (A) @ Washington

  • Jake: Football Team

    • This is a really tough game to pick. The Chargers project to be a very good offense this year, but I expect the Football Team to have an upgraded offensive unit with Fitzpatrick at the helm. With swiss-army knife Derwin James returning from injury this year, I expect the Chargers to employ a lot of disguised coverages, tricky blitz packages, and other complex techniques that will allow them to overcome any personal shortcomings. It will be tough to carry out early in the season, and given how dominant the wrecking crew up front has been rushing the passer (and the fact that Sweat and Young will only get better with age), this Football Team defense is going to be dominant enough to secure them the win in this one.

  • Sam: Chargers

  • Johnny: Football Team

    • There are a few reasons I am picking Washington:

      • 1: New HC for the Chargers

      • 2: Herbert doesn’t have Henry

      • 3: Fitzpatrick is an IMPROVEMENT for Washington, there’s no doubt about it! The only argument against this is Taylor Heinicke’s Wild Card performance last winter, but that was just one gae, so there’s no telling what he could do this year (even though I think he clearly deserves a shot somewhere)

Seattle @ Indianapolis

  • Jake: Seahawks

  • Sam: Seahawks

  • Johnny: Seahawks

    • Can’t pick Wentz, he can’t be trusted, he has A LOT to prove

New York (A) @ Carolina

  • Jake: Jets

    • Gotta go with Wilson and Corey Davis together here with the upset. I do expect the Panthers defense to improve this year: as Horn, Reddick and Brown have a lot of potential, but early in the season I’m not sure they’ll be firing on all cylinders yet. Darnold has yet to prove that he’s worthy of a starting job in the NFL and while he has a significantly upgraded supporting cast, I’ll believe it when I see it. I don’t think Wilson is any less proven than Darnold, and as a result I have to pick on his side. Rookie quarterbacks will always have growing pains, but so will fourth year quarterbacks that haven’t proven themselves to be successful.

  • Sam: Panthers

    • It’s time for Sam Darnold’s reckoning and it is going to be sweet. The Jets, although better all around than last year, will still be bad this year and have taken a step back at the QB position. The Panthers on the other hand have taken a huge step forward, swapping Teddy Bridgewater (who Literally used to be Sam Darnold’s backup) out for Sam Darnold. With a healthy Christian McCaffrey the Panthers will be a solid team this year and it starts with rolling over the Jets.

  • Johnny: Panthers

    • Zach Wilson is Sam Darnold, but Sam Darnold has a better team and more experience.

Minnesota @ Cincinnati

  • Jake: Vikings

  • Sam: Vikings

  • Johnny: Vikings

    • As much as I like Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow is definitely the better QB in this game, BUT Minnesota has a much better team and with Mike Zimmer on the hot seat (according to yours truly), I think cousins and him will step it up a notch and get off to a decent start, it’s all about the second half of the season for the Vikings, though

Arizona @ Tennessee

  • Jake: Titans

  • Sam: Cardinals

  • Johnny: Titans

    • Flip a coin, but Derrick Henry is on the same side of that coin as the team who replaced Corey Davis with Julio Jones

      • Tannehill still holds this team back

San Francisco @ Detroit

  • Jake: 49ers

  • Sam: 49ers

  • Johnny: 49ers

    • Jimmy G time, there’s a fire under his a$$

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo

  • Jake: Bills

  • Sam: Bills

  • Johnny: Bills

    • Super Bowl contenders vs a team worried about getting swept by Baltimore and Cleveland

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

  • Jake: Eagles

  • Sam: Eagles

  • Johnny: Falcons

    • Something isn’t right with the Eagles, and it isn’t Hurts’ fault

Miami @ New England 4:25 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Patriots

    • I think the Tua run offense will make a big leap this year, but in keeping with the theme of my Week 1 takes, I don’t think these types of improvements shine through completely during week 1. The Dolphins obviously have an elite secondary but I think the Patriots will exploit their middling run defense with their multi-headed monster backfield and take some of the pressure on Mac Jones in this one.

  • Sam: Patriots 

    • This pick is truly just because whatever higher power that controls sports hates me. They won’t be a playoff team, but the Patriots will be decent this year just to make me miserable and that starts with a win vs the Dolphins.

  • Johnny: _____

Cleveland @ Kansas City 4:25 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Chiefs

  • Sam: Chiefs

    • This is the undisputed game of the week. I still see a healthy Kansas City as the best team in the NFL, but the Baker Mayfield’s Browns, as much as I doubted them last year, have proven themselves to be real contenders who can win on any given week. I predict a Kansas City victory, but it’ll be fun to watch either way.

  • Johnny: Browns

    • I love this matchup week 1, but I wish it was further down the road when both teams had time to work out their kinks.  The biggest thing we learned about this divisional round matchup last year is Baker Mayfield CAN compete with the best, but some of his teammates blew it throughout the game.  We’ll see what they do year 2 with HC Kevin Stefanski

Green Bay @ New Orleans 4:25 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Saints

    • Jameis has something to prove this year, and I think the Packers offense might take a week or two to get back up to speed against an annually phenomenal Saints defense. Sure the Packers defense is a brutal matchup to start, but I’m seriously thinking about purchasing a ticket for the Jameis comeback season train after an electric preseason in a Sean Payton offense.

  • Sam: Packers

    • It’ll be interesting to see how his time off from training camp affected Aaron Rodgers and his chemistry with his team. I don’t think it’ll have a huge impact but if it does this will be a very losable game for Green Bay. My expectation is the veteran reigning MVP will come in playing just like he always does and the Packers take this contest no problem.

  • Johnny: Packers

    • Is Jameis really going to outperform ARodg?

Denver @ New York (N) 4:25 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Broncos

    • The Broncos have a really good supporting cast. Now they have a QB that can actually use it. Bridgewater won’t elevate this offense, but he certainly won’t derail it like Drew Lock, who despite his arm talent displayed some brutal ball placement last year.

  • Sam: Broncos

    • The Broncos have finally made the right decision benching Drew Lock, and now with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm they stand a much better chance. Bridgewater is far from spectacular but he’s a remarkably average quarterback who can play right with the level of the team around him. The team around him in Denver is strong, strong enough to beat the Giants at least, and TB5 will execute that mission. The Giants are stronger than they were last year, especially once Saquon Barkley is fully recovered, but I can’t see them pulling out this week one victory.

  • Johnny: Broncos

    • This season could be the final chapter of Daniel Jones with the New York Football Giants, and probably should be

Chicago @ Los Angeles (N) 8:20 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Rams

  • Sam: Rams

  • Johnny: Rams

    • Stafford is going to be fun to watch

MONDAY


Baltimore @ Las Vegas 8:20 p.m. EST

  • Jake: Ravens

  • Sam: Ravens

  • Johnny: Ravens

    • Lamar Jackson loves winning meaningless games